Why Israeli Elections Never Produce a Clear Winner

S8
E49
38mins

How do Israeli elections actually work? Israelis don’t vote directly for prime minister, no party has ever won a majority, and a party with just a handful of Knesset seats can sometimes hold the keys to government.

Noam Weissman sits down with former Knesset member Rachel Azaria to unpack coalition building, the 3.25% electoral threshold, the power of Haredi and Arab parties, and why Israeli politics can look so confusing from an American perspective. They also explore the biggest divides shaping Israel’s next government, and what to watch as the 2026 election approaches.

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Today’s episode is about something many of us are very not educated about. And we want to learn a lot more about it. It’s about Israeli elections. And when I say Israeli elections, it’s not really an episode about the 2026 election alone, which is coming up very soon in in like two months. We’re not going to be focusing, I’m using the word focusing on candidates and predictions for this year. That’s not my focus. I’m not the hot takes guy, as you know.

What we wanted to do here is classic Unpacking Israeli History style. Slow down, take a step back, and actually understand what’s going on. What are Israeli elections all about? Israel doesn’t have a president that you vote for directly. It doesn’t have two parties. Nothing in Israel seems to work the way Americans expect. So today’s about the system. It’s about the system, not the outcome.

And to speak about the system, to speak about the history, I am talking to Rachel Azaria. Rachel is exactly who the way I view it that you want explaining all of this. She spent years inside the system. City Council, the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament, actually getting things done through it. She’s not just experienced. She’s an expert who has lived the thing she’s about to break down. Rachel, thank you so much for joining me.

Rachel Azaria: Thank you. I’m happy to be here. Happy it worked out.

Noam: So let’s go directly into the conversation. I want to really understand the Israeli election experience. I’m gonna go broad and get more specific as we go along. And the first segment, the first idea I really want to speak about with you about is why does Israel keep having elections? Israel has had 25 elections to date. And if I did my math correctly, 25 elections in how many years has Israel been around? Not yet 80 years, right?

Not yet 80 years, right? So it hasn’t been around 80 years, and it has had 25 elections.

Most Americans think they understand elections. Last election in America in the United States, we voted either for Donald Trump, the guy on the ballot for the Republican Party, or voted for Kamala Harris running for the Democratic Party. It had has one person, one party. They either win or they lose leadership. That’s how it works.

And if you’re listening from the UK or Canada or Australia or South Africa or Mexico or wherever you are, you’re probably thinking, sure, my system doesn’t work exactly like that either. And maybe I said one of those countries incorrectly. I vote for a local candidate, or my ballot has preferences, or my countries had actual coalition governments too. So, okay, I get you. I feel I feel you.

But Israel is stranger than all of those. So let’s start with the basics. When Israelis go to the ballot boxes, in October or any time, can you explain simply what an Israeli actually votes for?

Rachel Azaria: Okay, so in Israel, when you go into the ballot and you vote, you have boxes with many, many, many different sheets of paper that you can choose and put in the envelope and vote for. And it’s important for me to say that there are many of them because you choose a party that you believe in the party, and there can be six, seven, eight, nine, ten, many different parties in the Israeli parliament.

Out of these parties, okay, who, okay, whoever gets the most votes or whoever has the most chances of forming a coalition. Okay, after the elections, this is something that’s being figured out.  And then the different parties, they say who they believe in, one of the leaders of one of the parties, and the the president, which is more our system is, more kind of like the British Queen, okay, the Queen of England. So he has the members of the different parties come in and say who they recommend or who, and then whoever has the most the most possibility of being able to form a coalition, they’re granted the option to form a coalition. And then they have time to form the coalition.

If they’re successful, then the government is voted in, and they start working. If they’re not successful successful, and that’s what we’ve been seeing over the past few years, time after time, if no one is successful in forming a coalition, you go back to elections. And there can be one party that gets an opportunity to form a coalition and they may not be successful, and then another party can get an opportunity to form a coalition.

Which basically what it means is that once our elections are over, it doesn’t mean everything is over. It means that we’re still trying to figure out who will be the next leader of the state of Israel.

Noam: And how do you actually build a political party? Meaning, I understand, is that if you get 3.25% of the vote, then you’re able to form a party. But it wasn’t always that way in in Israel’s founding.

Through 1988, it was around 1% and then it was raised to 1.5% and then 2%, and now it’s 3.25%. Does that weigh into the whole calculus?

Rachel Azaria: Yeah. I mean, most parties are not democratic parties in any way. There is no way that the people of Israel vote to decide or the members of the party vote to decide who would be their representatives in the party. It’s often someone charismatic that starts his party. He brings in either, you know, people he agrees with or people he knows or people he believes in or whatever, and they form a party. He’s the head of the party, usually it’s usually a he.

Noam: Yeah, I I was gonna say you keep on saying he because it is usually it has been recent I was looking at the head of all the parties right now and it’s all men.

Rachel Azaria: It’s all men, yeah. Women did head parties in Israel, but usually women have more there’s more chances of heading a party when it’s an organized party with a democratic system, when things are very clear. Usually when when it’s not clear, that’s that’s in you know in feminist theory, it’s all over the place. Okay. Whenever there are no very set rules, usually women can’t, you know, they they can’t make it. So it becomes more of a

Noam: Meaning meaning not not by not structurally, not by the law or the rule, but by by reality. Right.

Rachel Azaria: Yeah. Yeah, no, no, it’s not structured. Yeah, when it’s not structured. Yeah, yeah. So so you there’s a they’re heads of parties and if they’re charismatic enough, if they’re loved enough by Israeli society or whatever, they can start whoever I mean whoever wants can start their own party, but then they have chances of actually being elected. And we see that there, you know, there are quite a few candidates that have, you know, by the polls at least, they have, you know, a lot of votes were like Gadi Eisencott and Yair Lapid and and Bennett that joined with Lapid and and the the ultra-orthodox, right? They also have their parties, their parties also aren’t democratic parties. and you know, and they will be elected probably. and then there they’re a group of people that are trying to form their own parties. no one knows if they’ll cross the threshold. No one knows if it will happen.

And they’re trying, and then they might merge to make sure they’d cross the threshold. And then there are also the democratic parties, which is mainly the Democrats, it’s called the Democratim, that’s a new party that was formed from a few other parties. And then there’s the Likud, that almost all of the seats used to be by primaries. And now Netanyahu is there’s a big, big campaign going on within the Likud that he wants more seats that he can decide on his own, like the heads of many other parties. And that there’s several parties that have but that but that’s basically that’s what’s going on now.

So the threshold used used to be so much lower. Okay. And then it matters because when you want to start a new party, the threshold now is 200,000 votes. That’s a very high number. Okay.

  Noam: And why does that matter?

Rachel Azaria: Like I run an organization that helps reservist families. Okay. In Israel, they’re nearly four hundred thousand reservists. Like just to give you a like to understand what a large percent it is to have two hundred thousand people vote for you. And otherwise all the votes just you know, you just lose them all. So this is a big thing. In the past, the threat yeah, they’re all they’re just gone. In the past no.

Noam: Wow. They don’t go, meaning that you can’t like you can’t be like, hey, no number like you know, you don’t like get to like use that currency elsewhere, be like that’s my my number one pick is Likud, my number two pick is Labor. or what no.

Rachel Azaria: Yeah, no. And and you can’t say my number one is whatever Gilad Erdan that’s trying it to start his form his own party. And if you if if he doesn’t cross the threshold, so we’ll give it to the Likud. You can’t do that. Okay? You that’s it. And so people are afraid their votes, they’ll lose their votes. Their votes will be thrown like to the garbage. That’s how people say it. So so that’s why it’s very important.

And when threshold was lower, so it meant that that new parties could merge. And why is it so important in this specific these specific elections? We are we are after almost three years of war, okay, and the elections would be after three years of war. We’re in a situation that there is a lot of the relationship between Israeli society and Israeli politics is very messy. There isn’t much trust. Israeli society doesn’t have much trust in Israeli politics.

And there should have been a moment where new politicians would rise. But it’s very hard for new politicians to rise. And you see that most of the politicians that are in power are those that were in power before the threshold was, you know, was up. So that’s a big thing. Because the threshold is so high, chances are that only if you are in power, you’ll be able to stay in power as a party. So that’s a big thing.

Noam: Yeah, that’s a that’s a part of the system that thank you so much for explaining that I think many of us are are are confused about.

So let’s let’s go into the fact that no party, as I understand it, well, no part no party has ever won outright. It’s never been the case that any party has ever won a majority in Israel’s history. And to win a majority, that means sixty-one of 120 seats. Why not? Why has it been the case that nobody has ever done this? And, and I I know that in 1969, Hama’arach, meaning the alignment, was the closest ever to doing this. They had 56 seats, led by Golda Meir, Golda Meir almost got a majority in Israel’s history. The first the only time ever that Israel would have a majority in Israel the first time a party would ever have a majority in Israel’s history, right?

But that still never happened. So w why not and walk me through what happens instead.

Rachel Azaria: It never happened.

Okay, so first of I think one of the reasons it doesn’t happen is because that Israel is formed of many different groups that are used to have their own parties. Okay, but we have the ultra-orthodox parties, which are the ultra-orthodox are mainly like 13% of Israeli society, but because that their percentage of voting is very high, so their parties are usually a little more than their percentage in Israeli society. so this is like if you imagine like 15% of the votes are ultra Orthodox, okay? And then you also have the Arab society that also usually vote for Arab parties. Okay. So then they also, they’re 20% of Israeli or 22% of Israeli society. So they’re they usually vote less than their their percentage in the society. So then you also have, you know, I don’t know, 15, 15 seats that are that are Arab, between 10 and 15, it depends, it depends what happens.

So you have these two groups that always vote or almost always vote to their parties. And that’s why the large parties, first of all, will never have the majority.

And then you add also the Zionit datit, the Orthodox Zionist, yeah. The religious

Noam: it’s religious Zionists in English, but they don’t necessarily Rachel R they don’t necessarily represent all religious Zionists

Rachel Azaria: No, no. But in the past, in the past, it was more of a party like my parents always voted. I come from a right wing hand, right right wing house. My parents always voted, one voted for the Likud, and one voted for the for the Mafdal, which was the party of the the religious side. Yeah. So like, you know, and and that that is something they said we’re voting for the Likud, so they’ll have the majority and you know, they’d be able to form the coalition. We’re voting for the Mafdal.

Noam: National religious, yeah.

Rachel Azaria: Or for the religious zoners, because they will take care of our school system, like the education. So that was so and Israelis are used to thinking that way. Like it makes a lot of sense that the that couples will speak between themselves and say we’ll vote one for this and one for that.

And that’s something that I don’t think Americans can imagine that because it’s very it’s very different. But when you when there are few agendas that are important to you.

Noam: No.

Rachel Azaria: And there’s one party that leads this agenda and one party that leads more of this agenda.

I was a member when I was a member of the parliament, I was in the party that did a lot of work regarding social and economical issues. And we knew that a lot of our vote a lot of the people that voted for us often in the family that say, you know, okay, I’ll vote, one would vote for like for a large party, or one vote for one would vote for our party, because we’re more of, you know, the social, social aspect and not necessarily like the the security aspect or something like that. And that’s something that Israelis are used to doing.

Noam: Does this lead to I want you to help me make an argument for two things right now as you’re speaking? I’m American, right? So like I come from this is the only world that I know in terms of politics from you know, voting and living. But in America, make an argument why the American system is better and make an argument why the Israeli system is better.

Rachel Azaria: I think what’s good about the American system is that you have some sense of stability. Okay. Once your government is sworn in, once it’s elected and it’s there, it will be there for its term. And no matter what, it’s there, okay? And you can get upset, whatever, but you have time.

Noam: Right.

Rachel Azaria: As you know, members of Congress. You have time to work. In Israel, when I was elected into the parliament, I never knew how long my term was. So at the beginning, I was working like crazy. Every legislation I wanted to pass, I was working, I was afraid that we would fall apart. And I was just, you know, I was running like marathon, but how do you say sprint?

Noam: Right. Mm-hmm. Yeah.

Rachel Azaria: A marathon of sprints. Like every time I was so afraid with that and every time I was like, No, I have to pass it now, now, now, now like it’s and and you you don’t have one moment that you can y and you can’t even plan your term. You can’t plan. And then all the time everyone is busy doing politics. Cause you don’t even have one minute that you can let go because the elections could be tomorrow. The elections could be next week, the elections could be next month. So you can’t you can’t like breathe.

Noam: Yeah. Right. You know what, it kind of befits the Israeli culture to an extent also. There’s the you know, the y yeah it’s go, go, go, go, urgent, urgent, urgent, go, go, go.

Rachel Azaria: Yeah. yeah, we love it. We love it. Yalla yella yalla yalla. It’s very much. But so I think the American system gives that sense of stability. I think what’s well I think what’s good about the Israeli system is that it gives you an opportunity to like different aspects of your of your identity. And I think that what we see like now in the United States that you have to you have to choose what side you’re like and vote for one and if you vote for Democrats it’s a set of several ideologies that some of them you agree with and some of them you don’t.Noam: Right.

Rachel Azaria: Like you can be very pro Israel and you can be pro choice. And there’s nowhere you can be like both of them. You’re you’re laughing, but to us in Israel, it’s very clear that you would never have that situation that you know, to be very right even if you’re very right wing, you will have an opportunity to also be a feminist. Like this is something that we can’t we don’t get it. And ’cause we we have we have

Noam: Right. Yeah. Yeah. Explain that, Rachel, explain that. So you could be a right wing on on security issues, but but ve but very left wing on economic issues and on s and on social issues. Could you explain that?

Rachel Azaria: Yeah. Yes. Yes. So I was a member of that a party like that. Okay. It was called was called Kulanu. Okay. We had I’m very feminist. and in social issues, I’m like, you know, very whatever, center, center left, whatever. And in security, I’m center right. And it was very clear to us. And we knew what we’re voting and every s everything was okay. It worked. We knew what we’re doing. And you don’t need to

Because it’s not only two parties, you don’t need to choose in like this weird, like it’s almost enmeshed kind of, you know, like, okay, so the pro-Palestinians are like very much part of the Democratic Party, so you’re just stuck with them and what do you do? And in Israel, people say that it might work better and it will give stability if we’ll have a two-party system, but then usually would mean that the right wing would be very ultra-orthodox. Because, you know, the ultra Orthodox usually go with the right wing. And then the whole party would be more ultra orthodox and then you can be very feminist. And then, you know, you can’t be very liberal and everything that has to do with state and religion. And we know that Israelis are much more like, you know, I I don’t want to say sophisticated, because Americans are very sophisticated, but I think we can bring our c complex ideas into Israeli democracy and into our political system.

Noam: And let’s go into the one of the the quirks of the Israeli political system. 2021, Naftali Bennett’s party, Yamina, there are 120 seats. It won seven seats, which is around six percent of the vote. Likud won 30. But Naftali Bennett became the kingmaker ultimately and became the prime minister under this rotation agreement between him and Yair Lapid. can you share personal reflections about this one? You just left politics a year or two before this. So like what was your what was your personal reflection on that?

Rachel Azaria: Hmm. Yeah, yeah. Well, first of all, it was after a few elections. time after time, you know, not being able to form a coalition and everything just got very, very messy. I think at that point, everyone, you know, a lot of people, I don’t want to say everyone, I think the Likud was upset, but I think a lot of people are just happy that there is some kind of coalition, something, like something that will work. Because if you go back to elections again and again, you don’t have budget properly and you all the budget is we call it a twelfth. Okay. You do like you know you take the budget of the year before and you do one of twelve like for every month and y you you can’t push through in anything. Like everything is just you just freeze. So I think in that sense people were happy that at least something is happening.

But that is that is like one of the extreme moments of Israeli politics. Usually it doesn’t work that way.

I think you know, I don’t know what it would mean. Like it’s hard to tell. Time will tell how it’ll affect how it will affect Israeli politics in the long run. It could affect Israeli politics, and we we we might see some form of legislation that trying to make sure that this can’t happen again. Because basically what happens is it means that a party that could go either to one side or the other side, once it chooses one side, it has a lot of power because if it doesn’t join, because it’s not a hundred percent in that side, so it becomes the kingmaker and then they can become the king. Basically the kingmaker became the king. Yeah.

Noam: You’re right. It’s crazy. It’s wild. Like I get it, but it’s it’s I I get the it it feels like to me, and I’m being editorial right now, that feels more like a bug and not a feature in the design. Right? It’s not it

Rachel Azaria: So yeah, so I’ll say, I’ll say you have your challenges in your system. We have so many challenges in our system now. Like just the fact that almost all the politicians are the old politicians. I wanna say just like to give you a glimpse into how unbelievable it is. Cause after October 7th, people in Israel, I don’t know, I don’t know, I don’t know, very high percentage of Israeli society, they said, you know, other 120 members of Israeli parliament have to resign. We have to bring 120 new people into the system. The system is broken. Whatever, whatever. And then the same leaders are there. So we will have new members of parliament because the Likud will have less power and Eisenkot will have more power, whatever. But it is something about the inability to like to to like to bring any change into the system. so that’s like one one problem that we have in our system.

Another problem is what you’re saying about how to form a coalition and also inability to form a coalition. Okay, that that’s what we saw now, that we had we had again and again elections, and everyone knows that this might happen this time again. We might have several elections, and you know, all the all the American Israelis that are coming flying into Israel, I don’t know if they hear us now, If you saved money for the ticket, save money for a few more tickets because you might if you have vacation days that you’re using, save vacation days. You might have to go back and forth three times. We don’t know. Maybe it will be over. Maybe these elections will, you know, something will happen and whatever. And I’ll also say that part of it is that the right wing, they don’t need to win the elections to stay in power from election to election.

Noam: Explain that.

Rachel Azaria:  You understand the the okay, so to, to form a a government, you need to have sixty-one votes. Okay? The right the right wing, now if if none of the both sides they don’t get sixty-one votes, so the right wing that is in power now just stays in power in the meantime. Okay? And so and that’s why you can have again and again elections. The the center left have to have sixty-one votes to get the right wing out of power. So it’s

Noam: When you say when you say the right wing, I need to pause you on that. What does right wing mean in Israel? It like what what like what is that turn? And we we use that all the time when we’re talking about the history of Israel, the right wing versus the left wing, but but it at one point in time in Israeli history, it meant socialist versus capitalist, right? And and one at one point in time, left wing versus right wing meant land for peace versus versus not land for peace.

Rachel Azaria: Yeah. What is it now?

Noam: What does and and now let now I understand left wing versus right wing to mean anti-Bibi, pro-Bibi? What so what does it mean? What does left versus right mean?

Rachel: Yeah. So I so it could be, I mean, that is one segment of the right wing left wing. It’s very interesting to hear you talking about it. It’s yeah. but I think it’s also the relationship with the ultra Orthodox. Like if you ask what is the issue that is tearing Israeli society is what’s happening with the Ultra Orthodox.

I’m reminding you we’re after three years of very, very hard war. I mean it’s really I c I I can’t say how I’m I I’m sure if you listen to to to to this podcast so you know how how challenging it is.

Noam: No, but why is it so hard? Three years later.

Rachel Azaria: first of all they had thousands of people that were killed. Okay. if you’re not Ultra Orthodox or Arab, you know of like I can’t tell you how many of my friends lost their kids. we’re talking about families, reservists that are in duty for hundreds of years. hundreds of days. This year, 2026, they’re going to have to do 90 days. 90 days in combat, and not being at home. Like, that’s mind blowing. Ninety, that’s three months. Three months of being out of work. Three, like, not being at work, not running your business, three months a year, not being with your kids, not being with your family. Like just, just and and it’s it’s the third year. It’s after three years already. Okay.

This is very, this is a huge burden on Israeli society. And I think that there was this kind of thought or understanding or we imagined that when things will get tough, the Ultra Orthodox will join the Israeli army. The Ultra Orthodox don’t do army service in Israel. This is something that started when the state of Israel was born. There were 400 Ultra Orthodox that sat down and studied instead of joining the army. Ben Gullion gave that agreement. When when Menachim Begin got into power in 1977, he said there’s no more quota of 400. Whoever studies, while you study, you don’t join the army. Once you want to go out to the working force, you join the army. what happened today is that we have hundreds of thousands of ultra Orthodox men that don’t study. They usually often they don’t work or they work like without, you know, kind of black market. and they just don’t join the army. And and they’re saying we’ll never join the army. Like I talked to Ultra Orthodox we last week, a friend of mine, someone from my family, and I told him, Listen, what you know, what will you tell the the reservists? They’re giving 90 days. it’s already after three years. It is so hard. And he said, We’re not joining the army. If they don’t want to do their reserve duty, they won’t do the reserve duty. It has nothing to do with us. I think this is something that is very hard for Israelis to hear. And the right wing is hugging the the ultra Orthodox because they’re giving them the power.

That’s that that’s the government we’ve had now for the past four years during this very intensive war. So this is one issue.

I think there is an Yeah. Yeah.

Noam: So on on that issue, on that issue, it’s like if I was if I was just an alien coming in from out of space and I came down, I would not have put the ultra-orthodox in the religious nationalist group. Like it if I just were to see that, I’d be like, wait, no, that doesn’t that they that doesn’t make any sense. Like from a coalition perspective, I’d be like, well, if the national religious group is disproportionately serving in the Israeli army. And their whole ideology is about nationalism, religious nationalism. There’s religious value to the creation of a nation state, building a nation state, which requires service, which requires activism, which requires going to the army, and not just being in the army, but being in infantry units, not just infantry units, but being in elite infantry units. I would not have I would say that those are two strange bedfellows, I would say. So so that is so that.

I’m just putting a pin in that because they don’t seem like natural allies. And you’re saying that they, the ultra orthodox, the Haredim, as it’s called in Hebrew in Israel, are actually essential in this election.

Rachel Azaria: Yes. I think that a lot of the religious Zionists are having a hard time with this relationship with the ultra Orthodox. But the the issue of the the ultra Orthodox is a huge segment, but it’s not the only one. I think that the question, you know the the right wing, left wing kind of more security issue is still an issue.

And the ultra Orthodox say we will let the right wing do whatever they believe as far as, you know, as far as security. And they give like a carte blanche. so that’s one thing.

And I also there’s there is a issue, you know, people don’t know. I think it also goes back to history, like near history, but what happened with Ariel Sharon, that he was when he was when he was prime minister, he that we left the Gaza Strip.

Noam: What happened?

Rachel Azaria: even though when he was elected, he was elected like right wing, but then when he did that, I think this is something that since then a lot of the religious Zionists that are many of them live in Judea and Samaria, this is this is a big issue. Like this is a fear that one day they’ll be evacuated from their homes. So joining forces with the Ultra Orthodox gives a lot, you know, says at least they’ll have their home. I personally I think that the center should say everything that has to do with evacuating.

No, this is something that will be brought to you know, to a democratic poll and and any decision will be made in that way. And I think that would let go a lot of the fear, but that that’s my suggestion.

Noam:  o you pointed to one issue, which is the w one one segment, I should say, of Israeli society, which is the Haredim, ultra Orthodox, but you also mentioned Arab society, which is roughly twenty-two percent of of the state of Israel. And I wanna I wanna speak to this issue.

One of one of the things that we hear across the world is that, you know, Israel’s a democracy, and one of the things that makes Israel a democracy is the very fact that Arab citizens of Israel serve in Israel’s parliament. They serve in is the Israeli Knesset. But there’s a question underneath all of it that I don’t think we speak about enough or that I don’t think we understand enough. Is that Arab parties may be in the government, but they’re rarely, if ever, in the ruling government. They’re rarely, if ever, in the coalition that is part of decision making. So first of all, I want you to check me on that historically. Is that right that that Arab parties are not really ever in the ruling government, they’re just sitting in parliament on the opposition. Or is is there more to the story? What it what is the real story around Arab citizens in the Israeli Knesset?

Rachel Azaria: Okay. Okay, so I wanna go back to 1949. I just I love this story. Okay, 1949. It’s during the Israeli War of Independence. The war isn’t over yet. the government that was at the time come to Ben Gurion and say, We need to have elections. Okay, you know, I think a lot of people were afraid that Israel would not be a democracy, that you know, because it’s during war, the the elections will be will be postponed. And Ben Gurion said, of course we’ll have elections. And there is that we like there’s they stop everything and they hold elections. And this is during war. And why is it so important that to say to say that it was during the war of independence?

Because in the War of Independence, there were armies that fought fought against the state of Israel, but there were also citizen like citizens to be of Israel, Arab citizens that were fighting against Israel. And suddenly they said, Okay, we’re taking a pause in the war, go vote, and then we can continue. And the Arabs voted, which is again, to me, it’s mind-blowing. Okay. Israel is one of the only countries in the world where no one ever had to demonstrate to get the right to vote. Okay? Minorities, women’s rights. Everyone had the right to vote from day one. Okay. so once the elections are over, Ben Gurion gets very nervous. And he’s like, you know, my god, what do we do? We have members of the parliament that are, you know, Arabs that are some of them are against our country. Okay, like they’re fighting us at d maybe their relatives are fighting us. and then he he tries to bring these, you know, to bring the Shabak, the Shin Bet, the the yeah, the Israeli FBI into the parliament.

Noam: The FBI. Israel’s FBI.

Rachel Azaria: To follow these members of parliament, the Arab members of parliament is worried about them. And Sprintzak, that he was their chairperson of the parliament, says, no, that’s not going to happen. No, the army isn’t going to come into the parliament. The the Shabbak isn’t going to go into the parliament. The police isn’t going to go into the parliament. And in Israel, there’s a special force, law force, you know, we’re like with weapons and everything, like kind of a police.

That is special for our parliament. Okay? And that’s why and no one can come in with weapons. It is something that’s very deeply democratic in our society. And one of the reasons is because of this weird first elections that we had. You know, how do we make sure like how do we deal with the situation? And I I w I wanna say two things. First of all, it’s true that Arab parties weren’t part or rarely are part of the government. Okay, they are, but they rarely are. There are often Arab members of non Arab Arab parties that are part of the government. Okay, that happens more often. Yeah. If it’s an Arab party, that that is something that I think Israeli society is still kind of negotiating.

And I think a lot of the negotiation has to do with that first story I told you about the Arab parties when the state of Israel was born. I think there is like this internal discussion also amongst the Arabs and also amongst the Jews and also amongst the entire state of Israel.

Are the Arabs, do they want to be part of Israeli, the the state of Israel as a Jewish democratic state? Like, do they see themselves citizens not only because they happen to be here, but they feel part of the story and they want to be part of the story? I think that that’s what we see now with Mansoor Abbas, that he says, yes, we’re part of the story. We don’t want to be like opposition to the story. We’re part of the Israeli story, and then they want to be part of the government and they want to serve in the government and they want to take responsibility to what’s happening in Israel. amongst the Arab parties in the past we have and also today we have members of the Arab parties that say we feel much closer to the Palestinians. Like we’re part of the Israeli parliament but we see ourselves as Palestinians. And then usually they’re not part of the government. Like they don’t want to be part of the government and also, you know, and also if you’re part of the government, you decide.

And security issues, you decide in the army. Like you, it’s very it’s this is like a challenging, it is a challenge, and I think that this is something that’s being negotiated, like amongst everyone in Israeli society. and I think that we’re going to see we’re on the verge of a change. very brave leader, not only Pantan, very brave leader, and I think he’s leading like some of the Arab Israeli society to be much more part of Israeli society, but I can say that this is something that we see not only politically but also like within Israeli society. like Arabs that feel part of the of the big story of the state of Israel.

Noam: So I wanna make two arguments, one for, one against. so let me make an argument against including Arab parties in the government. The argument for that would be saying that a governing coalition has to share responsibility for the state’s core interests, which includes security, like you’re saying, as a Jewish state. And some Arab parties reject Zionism, which you haven’t even explicitly said, but they reject Zionism. Or they oppose defining Israel as a Jewish state. So that would make it very difficult to your story of 1949 to build trust on issues such as national security, military operations, or other broader questions. So that would be one that would be the argument against including Arab parties in the coalition of the government, not in the government itself, but in the coalition.

the argument for including Arab parties in the government is that Israel is both Jewish and democratic. And roughly 20% or 22%, like you said, are Arab. And if Arab citizens are expected to participate in elections by paying taxes, contributing to society, then they should also have a pathway to participate in governing. And in in 2021, Ra’am, which is led by Mansoor Abbas, was part of the Bennett Lapid coalition and they participated in governing and focusing on domestic priorities.

So so those are the two different perspectives that I just wanted to lay out. And like you said, it’s not that an Arab citizen of Israel cannot be part of the Israeli government. There are, and they’re they’re they often are, but they are not the parties historically outside of 2021 have never been part of the ruling coalition.

And I’m wondering from your perspective, do you see a future in which Ra’am and people like Mansoor Abbas will say we are committed to the flourishing of a Jewish democratic state, and we are going to be part of the ruling coalition because they will be trusted. Now, the one question mark that I have on that, on top of the question, is, wait a second, you just made an argument, Rachel, that Haredim, the ultra-orthodox, are not part of the Israeli army, which creates a burden on Israeli society to be in reserves to spend 90 days a a year in it. Like that’s very hard. But what about Arab society? Why is Arab society if not part of the Israeli army? What do you think about the the intersection of all of that?

Rachel Azaria: Yeah, so so I wanna say a few a few things. First of all, do I see our future, you know, could the future be different? I think it could. I think it definitely could. I think that as I said, I think that this is something that’s being negotiated amongst the Israeli Arabs and amongst, you know, entire Israeli society, Israeli Jews, right wing, left wing. I think this is something that we’re kind of kind of tapping into.

And and I can say that like in also in also in the parliament, not only in the government, also in the parliament. So so there is the the the committee, the defense, the the the defense committee. Okay. I I was a member of the defense committee. and there the Arab the Arab representatives are not part of the defense committee. Like th this is something that is like, you know, I I don’t think it was ever decl like, you know. It’s not legal it’s not a legal issue, but they know they’re not part of this this committee because it’s a committee that has, you know, that discusses everything that has to do with defense. And yeah. Yeah.

Noam: And and is that is that just to I wanna I wanna cut to the kernel of the I want to get to the issue. It’s part of the challenge that Arab citizens of Israel are are the same exact people as the Palestinians, they’re the same cousins, they have the same family, same origin. Some of them either were expelled or l fled in 1948, and some of them stayed. And the feeling is from these people that our cousins, our brothers, our sisters, our relatives are the enemies, not the people necessarily, but the, but the governing structures in these places in the West Bank and Judea Samaria in Gaza, my c like the the feeling is wait, we don’t have full trust because your cousins are the ones at war with us. Is that the is that part of it?

Rachel Azaria: Yeah. Yeah, it’s part of it. I’ll also I’ll also remind that we had the member of Israeli parliament, Azmeb Shara, that he fled Israel because he was it was suspected that he is he’s a spy

Noam: Wait, who is this?

Rachel Azaria: It was he was a member of Israeli parliament and you know he wa like everyone knew him and then one day he disappeared and there was this whole thing that they said that that they were they realized that he was gathering information and tr and giving it to other other countries. Like, you know, he never went into to trial because he just he fled the country. he doesn’t live in Israel anymore, so we don’t know exactly what that, but we know he fled the country, man. So

Noam: Right. So so there’s fear on that in

Rachel Azaria: We don’t know. Yeah. And like so, this is something that’s it’s always there in a sense. but I think that this is something that you know w we need to deal with. And and I’ll also say that I think there’s there are different segments of Israeli Arabs, and that’s also something we need to talk about. Like the Bedouins are different than the Muslims, that are different than the Christians. I will say that the Druze are they serve in Israelis in Israeli army. And they’re very much part of the coalition and the government and everything. So it’s not about being a Jew or non-Jew. It’s about how how much do you feel part of Israeli government, society, Jewish democratic country? Like that is the big question.

So the Druze are in. The Christians also usually feel very close to Israeli society. What I’m doing now is horrible because I’m like, you know, yeah, yeah. Which is a so I just want say the the

Noam: You’re painting with a wide brush. Yeah, I know, I know.

Rachel Azaria: The Bedouins used to be part of they used to serve in the Israeli army for many years, many years. Some do still. And Mansoor Abbas, a lot of his voters come from the Bedouins, for you know the Bedouin Arab society, and I think they feel closer in a way to Israeli society.

So I think this is something that we’re trying to kind of figure out. And we know that also when the state of Venezuela was born, there were different segments of the what we call, you know, Arab Israeli society. And there were part that part that felt more part of Israeli society and part that felt less. And I think that once you feel part of Israeli society, so it also you’re not afraid to be part of the government because you won’t be considered a traitor. Like I think that there are members of the Arab parties that don’t wanna be part like they will be the Palestinians will see them traitors and so it’s it’s complicated.

Noam: So you’ve explained a lot about how we got to where we are now. I want to ask one more question just to have a little bit more clarity on the actual system. And then I want to go to a little bit about the future. Just but the system. So could you explain you started talking about it before, but I want to understand it better. Why does a party with three or five three or three three or five people in the government, why do they. Okay, what’s the minimum?

Rachel Azaria: Y you no you can’t have three. You can’t have three. You have to have four.

Noam: Okay, four. Okay. Okay. Four, sorry. that makes it even crazier that Natalia Bennett was prime minister with seven seats. That’s even crazier. But so let’s say you have four, five, or six seats. Why and besides being a kingmaker, why do they have such authority? Walk me through that a little bit more.

Rachel Azaria: Why do the ministers have a big

Noam: why does someone who only has five seats, why do they have a big portfolio potentially? And could you give me examples of that?

Rachel Azaria: Yeah, so that’s that’s the art of negotiation. I’m smiling because it doesn’t really make sense, but that’s just the way it is. I’d also say that I think that our our like our system is broken in many ways, and one of the ways that the system is broken is that Netanyahu doesn’t want to give a lot of power to the members of his party because then they might get stronger and they might take over heading the party. So what they do is often Netanyahu gives members of his party like the the portfolios that they’re not interested in. So, you know, so they won’t excel in them. And

Noam: Wa wait wait, th this is in the weeds right now. Wha I don’t c explain what you’re saying. I’m not following. I’m not following.

Rachel Azaria: Okay, so this is like this is like the real politics. Real real real politics.

Noam: This is like real politics. You’re really teaching me politics. Okay. yeah.

Rachel Azaria: Okay. So and there there are like if you have a member of the Likud that really wants to be the the minister of of defense, okay, and is also very talented in it. So Netanyahu usually won’t want to give it to him. Because he doesn’t wanna make him very noticeable. Like if you think of Galant, that he wanted the Ministry of Defense and he knew it and he wanted think about his pro like public profile. If you compare him to Israel Katz, that he doesn’t come from the field and he doesn’t have any public profile. He no no one

Noam: So you’re saying that so you’re saying so you’re saying Benjamin Netanyahu will elevate the profile of an Israel Katz who is less threatening to him than somebody like a Yoav Galan?

Rachel Azaria: Yeah. And and and not only elevate, he will give him a ministry that

Noam: Is that an ab– are you stating an opinion or giving me a fact?

Rachel Azaria: I’m saying an opinion that is I’ve been watching it for a long time and I just saw it time after time happening. And and I also want to say that’s one of the reasons that Netanyahu is very close to the Ultra Orthodox, because the Ultra Orthodox declare they don’t want to be prime minister, okay, which is like another part of this. Okay. He has 15 or whatever, 15, 17 mandates.

Noam: Okay. Fair enough, fair enough.Rachel Azaria: That the people that head that don’t want to be prime minister. Think of Bennett, Naftali Bennett. Naftali Bennett worked for Netanyahu. Then he started a party or he joined a party and then started by whatever and public Naftali Bennett was in many parties, but he wants to be the Prime Minister. And that’s why he will always have like it’s always threatening for Netanyahu. So one of the reasons Netanyahu keeps the ultra- Orthodox very close to him is because it gives him 17 or 15 mandates, like a lot of mandates, with no threat of be wanting to be the prime minister. So and this is something I heard from Netanyahu’s people.

Okay. So it’s not only an opinion. It is, it’s just the way politics work. And you know, everyone, when you’re in politics, you also want to, you know, you do your role or it’s you’re supposed to do your role as prime minister, as as minister, as MK, whatever. But you’re also always watching who’s your competition and how do you make sure you’ll be re-elected. So because also our system is not organized like your system, two terms and you’re out. Here it’s everyone is always doing politics. You don’t know when the elections will be. You can be reelected again and again, like and and a small party can suddenly become a prime minister and a large party can say nothing makes sense. So yeah. Yeah.

Noam: Parties. two terms. Okay. That’s it. And that’s it. Do okay, I I’ve I’ve I have two questions on this. I’m we we actually spent I’m impressed with us. We spent a lot of the time speaking about the history of the Israeli government and the way it works without talking about Bibi, but I wanna ask, I wanna, ask a question on Bibi. Do you think I’m b bringing my American perspective into this, do you think it’s possible that people like Zaran Mamdani and El Sayed in in in Michigan. Do you think they’re actually helping Bibi Netanyahu win? Like ironically, they’re like they’re their meaning their opposition and demonization of him actually is gonna be utilized by him and his and and the Israelis in general to be to to to bolster them.

Rachel Azaria: my God. my God. So I think that in the past I would tell you that this is a lot of like Netanyahu’s politics, okay, to like to find the demon and say, I will protect you from the demon. I think it’s getting at this point, it’s a little more challenging because I think he always like because his of his beautiful English and because of, you know, his like he knows how to speak to Americans. I think that’s something that is very high profile, like in his like it’s like it’s a big thing in like who he is. So I think that now it could be a challenge for him. Like I I think it would be I don’t think he would use Mamdani to prove that he is, you know, he should be re-elected. I do think that when Mamdani goes against Netanyahu, you know, I don’t think it’s, like I think it elevates Mamdani. and I I like it doesn’t weaken Netanyahu. I don’t think it weakens Netanyahu, but I like I I I see what you’re saying. I think there are like two parts to it. So if in the past it would just elevate him, now I think there are two parts to it.

Noam: The other the other the feminist part of me wants to just a give a little editorial also that says, Hey, this sounds a lot like fragile male egos not knowing how to deal with with issues. And if maybe if a few more women were in charge, is it possible that a lot of these issues will would be cast to the side?

Rachel Azaria: Well, listen, I was in a term this is like these are like my this is a sad moment, okay? I was in a term that we were over thirty pr thirty women, members of Israeli Parliament, thirty five, I don’t remember the number, we were a lot. And there was a lot of women power, like girl power in the parliament. We stuck together. No, we did a lot of work. It was pretty amazing, yeah. What we got done and we cooperated and and like the

Noam: Yeah. Wow.

Rachel Azaria: The older I was in UMK, I was for one term, and like the older women, they protected me when like someone said something that wasn’t appropriate, like immediately older, you know, they were like, You won’t talk to the win. Like something that is yeah, it was it was very empowering and pretty amazing. we see the price of the fact that there are less women, and even when there are women, you don’t have women heads of parties. When I was in the parliament, there were women that were heads of parties or former heads of parties, like very, very strong women. Today, the women are they don’t head the parties. It’s like it’s a different kind of story. and that is a very there is a price that we’re paying. There is a toad that we’re paying as society with this. I think that like that, this I’ll say, like from the Jewish perspective, right? In Bereshit–

Noam: Genesis. Genesis.

Rachel Azaria: In Genesis, yeah, God created men and women. Like it’s in you know, th this this is the way the world is supposed to be. We’re supposed to work together. unfortunately when it doesn’t when it doesn’t work that way, there is a price that we pay. yeah. I hope there’ll be were more women in the future.

Noam: All right, so let me ask you, maybe this is a concluding question. based on everything we’ve spoken about, based on the various factors of the ultra orthodox in this, or the Haredim, the the Arab citizens of Israel, the the right, the left, I I still don’t have full clarity on what the divide right now is outside of what it sounds to me as being protecting it sounds to me like the vast majority of Israeli society has is on the same page with regard to security at, but maybe I’m wrong about that. I wanna know what the real divide is. What is the real divide and what you think is going to be what everyone should be paying attention to as this government forms.

Rachel Azaria: Okay, so I think the real divide are the ultra Orthodox. That’s the biggest issue. That’s the like the most painful issue. I say that there’s another divide or like the r that I think

Noam: Could you say more about that? Because if someone like I have a lot of listeners from across the political divide who might be very much so maybe they’re Haredi, maybe they’re ultra orthodox. So what do you what do you mean that they’re the divide?

Rachel Azaria: No, the divide is they need to join the army. We need that we need them to join the army. That’s it, game over.

Noam: But they and and they would say they don’t need to right I’m saying the divide is th they you you say they need to join the army. They say they don’t need to join the army, then they could study Torah and that’s that’s of equal value. You’re saying that’s the divide, right?

Rachel Azaria: Listen, I I I mean I I I understand that you wanna be like a moderator and kind of give a very that, but no. You’re I mean

Noam: That’s my I I wanna that’s I wanna I wanna present their I wanna present their perspective at the very least.

Rachel Azaria: Yeah, it’s the i but their perspective is basically saying it’s not saying it’s equal. They’re saying we don’t, you know, we’re not going to join the army. We don’t care what you’re saying. you know, we’re going to study Torah. And if you don’t want to if you don’t want to join the army, don’t join the army, we’re not coming. But that’s what they’re saying now, and they’re saying it loud and clear. Like, I know it’s very harsh to hear that, but they’re saying it loud and clear. We’re not joining the army, period. We know that we can’t continue. Like this is not going to work. And before October 7th, in every given moment, there were 3,000 to 5,000 reservists on duty. Now we have between 50,000 to 80,000 reservists on duty in every given moment. Like this is the game changer of October seventh is so huge. Like the reservists that we need in Lebanon and in Syria and Judean Samaria and Asa and everywhere. We need soldiers, we need manpower. So

Noam: So that’s the divide. That’s the divide as you see it. Yeah. Yeah.

Rachel Azaria: I think that’s a major divide, yeah. And and also say I I run Ha ogen for reservist families. Like this is what we do, this is what I’ve been doing for the past three years. No. No, no, no. There is no there is a party. Yeah, the reservist, yeah. That’s Yoaz Hende started a party, but that’s going back. Remember going back to what I said, the threshold is so high that it’s very h difficult for new parties to be formed and to start like moving something because of like the

Noam: Right. Which is by the way a party in the Israeli government that might become w might the I’m saying the res the reservists, I’m saying.

Rachel, is it possible that the reservist party might join the ultra orthodox parties in a ruling coalition?

Rachel Azaria: I don’t think so. No. Listen, everything is possible. It’s politics.

Noam: But it’s possible, right? Which would be which as an American would be like I don’t understand what’s happening. Okay.

Rachel Azaria: Well also Israelis won’t understand what’s happening. They would lose their credibility so quickly. No, really, I think listen, I don’t know, maybe I don’t you know I I think I understand Israeli society pretty well. I think they’ll lose so much credibility very quickly. I don’t think they would do that. It wouldn’t be worth it there it wouldn’t be worth it for them to do it. I would be very surprised to hear them do that.

Noam: Right. Probably.

Rachel Azaria: unless the ultra Orthodox parties say, yes, we’ll sit together, but we will join the army. If they say that, so hey, you know, I’m happy for them to be part of the government, of course. You know, it’s not it’s not personal, it’s just we need to get make this happen. I think that the right wing and I just I’ll just say I think the right wing would say that a major issue is what happens with the Arabs. Like does the the does the center left coalitionDoes it lean on the Arab parties? Now, here’s something interesting that’s happening that we didn’t talk about is that you have Sigolovich, that he was a very, very high ranked in the in the police, very high ranked in the police. He’s probably joining Mansur Abbas’s party, which is an Arab party, which is interesting because usually you have like Jews joining sorry, Arabs joining Jewish party like parties. This is new. He’s yeah, yeah, he’s full

Noam: Uh-huh. And he’s clearly a Zionist, you’re saying. Yeah. Right. Right.

Rachel Azaria: Yeah, full power Zionist and he’s probably we don’t know, I know it’s being negotiated, but if he joins that party, so that’s another step that Mansoor Abbas is doing, walking towards like Israeli society and being part of like the Jewish democratic story.

Noam: Right. Got it. Okay, so so so that’s something to look forward to to to look to. Anything else that we should all be strategically be paying attention to two months from now? I won’t ask for a prediction, but is it is it gonna be Eisenkot? Is it gonna be Bibi? Is it gonna be who’s it gonna who like what’s the strategy we should be paying attention to? Because you started giving us the history of like the different coalition the different parties coming together, vying for power, coming together like how what what should we be looking to?

Rachel Azaria: first of all, what I said that the right wing don’t need to win, they just need not to lose. Like that’s a big that’s that’s a big issue when you’re trying to understand what’s going to happen. When when you look at the polls, you need to count how many votes you have that can actually form a government. Okay. So what the right wing did for many years is like, you know, are the Arabs part of the coalition? Aren’t they part of the coalitions? You’re going to have parties that are part of that could be part of the Eisencourt, whatever he probably will be the leader, at least by the polls and also by Israeli history. I’ll go back to that in a minute. you will have parties that will say, I want to join Eisencourt, but I have a hard time if he’s leaning on the Arab parties, like if they’re not willing to, you know. So this is this will be an issue that we’re going to see in the next few months, we we could have several elections. I started by saying that, you know, save money for tickets, save time. Maybe we won’t. You know, really it’s very hard to to understand what would happen. And also I want to say that we might see a growth in the number of Arab Israelis that vote, and then all of the polls that we see are irrelevant. Because, like the you you know how there are always groups that it’s hard to predict their behavior. So the Arabs are a group that it’s hard to predict their behavior. And if actually the the the percentage of their vote will be higher, that means that everyone else will have less mandates. And if you’re trying to form a coalition that doesn’t lean like lean dramatically on the Arab party, so it would be even harder. You understand? So like there are a lot of it’s really hard to tell. Like yeah

Noam: Yeah. Yeah. Can can Mansour Abbas become a king maker and therefore the Prime Minister?

Rachel Azaria: first of all I say Mansour Abbas is wise enough not to become the Prime Minister with a sm smile party, but he can’t be. No, I’ll tell you why he can’t be, because he can’t be the one that says, you know, I’ll go either with them or with them. The only reason Bennett could do that is because that both sides were hoping that he will join them. Okay. Who c the one that could do that, by the way, is Lieberman. We didn’t talk about them before.

Noam: But theor but theoretically. Got it. Yeah, who this is it’s just say say say a word about Lieberman. See, this is this let me tell you why it’s confusing first. In the in the early aughts, Aviktor Lieberman was viewed as an extreme right wing politician. And now he’s being viewed as this divide center, center left. I explain just explain that to me. I know we have to go, but like it give me this last explanation. I need to understand this.

Rachel Azaria: tell me about it. A centrist Yeah. yeah. Avigdor Libelman, I could tell you that when he when I was in the coalition in the government and he joined our coalition, there were left wing people that wrote to me, How can you sit with him? He’s, you know, he’s this radical right wing, whatever. And I and I was like, you know, it’s okay. We can, you know. It would be okay. It would be okay.

Noam: We got this.

Rachel Azaria: Yeah, whatever. so and today they love him, which is interesting how politics, you know, play play out. But Lieberman, he’s he he made Aliyah from the USSR. so he’s like Russian considered. and he had a party that was a very kind of Russian party. I want to remind you to a million Jews made Aliyah from the USSR, immigrated from the USSR. So that was the beginning, that was his party. Today he’s like this very liberal like you know LGBTQ you know fighting against old Orthodox whatever like against religion and you know very harsh religion and the state and whatever and at the same time he’s right wing he’s a ver he’s very seriously right wing so that’s Lieberman

Noam: Right. I seriously right wing on on national security. Okay.

Rachel Azaria: National security, yes. Seriously right wing on national security. Yeah. So he’s again, he’s like this very liberal and very and very like security right wing, which is and that’s a blend we have in Israel. Okay.

Noam: Right, right. Which in the US is just we don’t it’s not the same. It’s you you can’t it’s different. It’s just different.

Rachel Azaria: It’s different. So so he could be the kingmaker. That might happen. We don’t know.

Noam: It could be. Rachel, I wanna thank you so much for explaining such a just a for me, like you really helped me walk through both how the Israeli political system works and also what we’re or what we should be paying attention to today. So a huge thank you to you, Rachel, for joining us.

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