On this podcast, on the show, we usually look back 50 years, maybe 100 years, or 3,000 years. Today we’re looking back one day. Just one day.
Yesterday, Israelis voted. It was the first national election since October the 7th. The first since the hostage crisis. Since the war with Iran. Since two years that changed how Israelis think about almost everything: security, trust, who serves and who leads.
Polls closed about 24 hours ago. A lot has happened since then, and a lot is still being decided. So, to help me understand what Israelis just said, just voted for, what they’re thinking, what comes next. I’m joined by political analyst Eli Kowaz. Eli, welcome to Unpacking Israeli history.
Eli Kowaz: Thanks for having me, Noam.
Noam: Before I hear your thoughts, I just wanted to share with you some of my predictions that we had on Unpacking Israeli History and get your reaction. Here it is:
So which is it? Will Eisenkot and Yashar end the Netanyahu era? Or is this another mirage? Full disclosure, I hate predictions, I hate them. But I’m going out on a limb anyway. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Eisenkot. So there it is. Eisenkot wins. It’s on tape. And we’ll play it back on the post election show. I can’t believe I just said that out loud because Bibi never, ever goes away. He just doesn’t. Almost 25% of Israel’s existence, he’s been prime minister. But you know what? It’s fun to take a bet on something every now and then.
All right, so what do you think of that?
Eli Kowaz: I think it was a bet that I would have made too. You know, I like predictions actually. And you know, I don’t know if you consulted Polymarket, but Eisenkot was high up.
But you were right. Your instinct was right. It told you that, you know, there’s something about Netanyahu and how he can campaign that, you know, you can never write him off.
Noam: Eli, it is 8:30 PM right now, Israel time, the day after the elections. Please tell me what happened. Objectively first, what just happened?
Eli Kowaz: Well, it was a whirlwind of a 24 hours. And let me tell you something I know you said that you know, we’re talking about just one day ago, but I thought about 1996 and I’ll tell you why even though I was a five-year-old at the time, but that was an election that there was a moment, kind of we went to bed with one idea of what was happening, and we woke up with something else, and the same happened today.
So the day started with a great deal of excitement, especially in the center left, the center left camp, the opposition camp, the change camp, the Gadi Eisenkot-led bloc. I live in Tel Aviv, and most of what I saw with my own eyes was in Tel Aviv and obviously that is a sample size as you know if you go outside of Tel Aviv we’re in a very different country.
Noam: They call it medinat Tel Aviv, the state of Tel Aviv.
Eli Kowaz: Exactly. But you know, I have family in Be’er Sheva. I’m very well aware of the other. But in Tel Aviv, there was this sense of excitement and change. There were tens of thousands of Israelis that had flown in from abroad.
It seemed like there was real panic among Netanyahu’s Likud. Early in the morning, Netanyahu released videos warning about the Arabs voting in high numbers and the center-left voting in high numbers. And he was right. The Arabs were also voting in super high historic numbers. Over 80% turnout. Absolutely astonishing. And no one really saw it coming.
So that was happening. And so that created this, it’s almost like a traditional Netanyahu like panic campaign called like a Gevalt campaign where he iconically did this in 2015 where he posted a video and he said that the Arabs are being put on buses by the left and voting in droves. So that happened early and actually Netanyahu was successful in getting Likud turnout later in the day even higher.
Now, Israelis are interpreting this depending on the side of the map. You know, some people are saying Netanyahu lost, other people are saying Netanyahu won. The reality is something in between.
Noam: Let’s go over this. In 1996, what you’re referring to is that people went to sleep at night thinking that Shimon Peres won, but Bibi Netanyahu actually was the one that won the election, I believe is what you’re referring to.
Eli Kowaz: Exactly. That was the election that happened months after Yitzhak Rabin’s assassination, an incredibly traumatic event for Israeli society. In a similar sense, this is an election, be it three years after an incredibly traumatic event, October 7th. The stakes were high. A lot of people were saying it’s the most consequential, most important election in Israel’s history.
And we went to sleep when we saw these exit polls, which the main channels they showed that, yes, it was close, but they showed that Gadi Eisenkot bloc had 52 seats, the Netanyahu bloc had 50 seats, and the Arabs had 18 seats, which in that scenario there would be a clear path for Gadi Eisenkot to form a minority government and it would be a clear statement that Israelis do not want Netanyahu to continue as prime minister.
But as time passed, we got updates from the exit polls. And then in the morning, as the official results came in, we saw a more complicated picture. And Netanyahu, he was still far from his current coalition. But he went up to right now he’s at 53 seats and the Eisenkot bloc is down to 48. Now we are still waiting for the double ballots, which are the ballots from soldiers, diplomats abroad. That’s about 480,000 votes. Well, once we get those votes in, we’ll have the entire picture. I don’t expect it to move that much. One seat will be dropped from the Arab parties and it will either go to the Eisenkot bloc or to the Netanyahu bloc. It’s kind of up in the air. Yeah, that’s the situation.
Noam: So though, where we are right now is we have 53 pro-Bibi, 48 anti-Bibi, 19 Arab. I looked at the numbers, in 2022 there was no Yashar, and now there are 21 seats. In 2022, Likud had 32 seats, now 26. B’Yachad had 24, now 12. Demokratim 4, now 8. Joint List went from 5 to 12. Yisrael Beiteinu from 6 to 7. Otzma Yehudit from 6 to 7. United Torah Judaism, 7 and 7. Shas went from 11 and now they’re only at 7. And Religious Zionists went from 7 to 6. And the Ra’am, which is Mansoor Abbas, went from 5 in 2022 to 7 now.
A quick reflection. I want to hear from you. Who are the winners and losers of this election as it stands right now?
Eli Kowaz: Well, I think the definite losers, you can look at the ultra-Orthodox parties. They both lost seats. They both even in terms of voter turnout, it was lower than usual. You know, they’ve been at the center of this election campaign because of the entire debate around drafting the ultra-Orthodox and the Haredi draft and after, know, Israel’s been in a war in Gaza and Lebanon with Iran and Israel needs more soldiers and 15% of the population have an exemption and that has been a major major issue not only in the opposition, the Eisenkot bloc voters, but also a good amount of coalition voters, Likud voters, religious Zionist voters also have an issue that the ultra-Orthodox don’t serve. And so they weren’t able to get their people out in the same way as they usually do.
Noam: So the losers are, United Torah Judaism is a loser. Is Ben Gvir a winner or a loser from this?
Eli Kowaz: So I would put Ben Gvir in the loser camp.
Noam: But even though he went up one seat?
Eli Kowaz: Yes. And also I would put Smotrich there as well.
Noam: Why?
Eli Kowaz: The reason is because Netanyahu, they were both polling significantly higher before the election. But what Netanyahu did, why Netanyahu finished with 26 or 27 seats was because, in Hebrew we call that a shtia, like a shtia campaign. Like he was drinking. I don’t know why they call it that, but just drinking up the seats around him from similar parties instead of trying to, for example, get support from the other bloc. Netanyahu just goes to the parties to his right and says that if the Likud isn’t the biggest party, we’re going to have a Gadi Eisenkot government with the Arabs. So that was…
Noam: Right. So I wanna get to that also ’cause the Arabs, I have down, my losers are, I had Ben Gvir, I had Yoseph Haddad as a loser in this. Yoseph Haddad they didn’t pass past the threshold.
Eli Kowaz: Yeah. No, they weren’t even close. Yeah.
Noam: So they came out as a loser in this and then the winners I have down Zionism, Zionism parties. I don’t know how you feel about that, but like the Zionism parties, how many total seats do Zionism parties have? Now, if you look at it, you have Yashar plus Likud plus B’Yachad plus Democrats plus Israel Beitinu plus Otzma Yehudit plus Shas, if you want to call it Zionist. I know there’s a debate there, but okay, I’m cool with that. Plus religious Zionists. That’s like a heck of a lot of the government has many Zionist seats. And then, the other, so I have Zionists, I have Arab parties, and the other winner that I have is Bibi. What’s your reaction to that?
Eli Kowaz: Interesting.
Noam: Well, the reason I say Bibi is because of this. Just here, listen, like come on. It’s, you told a story of coming back to 1996 when you were five years old, and Bibi ends up winning that election. And that’s how Bibi has basically, since 1996, this premature eulogy for Benjamin Netanyahu. And now we’re talking about 2026.
Eli Kowaz: Okay.
Noam: That is astounding that he still has this ability to do what he’s doing. That’s just objectively astounding.
Eli Kowaz: It is. It is. It’s true. There is a reason he’s the longest serving prime minister in Israel’s history. But, you know, what you have like so he is a brilliant political campaigner. He knows exactly, exactly, exactly what he’s doing. And if you were to tell me that after October 7th, after the worst massacre, the worst day in state of Israel, the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, the prime minister that was there, that also was the prime minister who for the vast majority of the time before, led the policies and the strategies that led to October 7th, that he would be able to not only see out his term, which it was a crazy accomplishment, I think, or a failure of the Israeli opposition, but on top of that, to not lose the election in a clear-cut way, it is a significant, significant accomplishment.
And we see that Netanyahu, like from how I see it, he set this out as the goal almost immediately after October 7th. He distanced himself from the events of October 7th, whether it be not having a state-led inquiry into the failures, whether it was not visiting the communities after October 7th until a couple years after. Whether it was trying to, you know, going after military achievement to achievement. You know, some completely necessary. There can be debate about others, but just trying to make it so when you think about October 7th, wow, it was a long time ago and look at all we accomplished since. And so I think Netanyahu did that effectively.
And I think in this campaign, he did what he does best. He campaigned on, you know, Israelis are scared. You know, a lot of Israelis are still in deep trauma from October 7th a lot of Israelis are scared of Arabs. Are scared of Arabs. And you know, there are tons of great and good Israeli Arabs, the vast majority are completely good people. But Israelis are traumatized and they’re not only traumatized by Palestinians. They’re traumatized by the idea of Arabs and Netanyahu plays. He knows how to play into that fear incredibly well. That is what he did. And that is how he got this result.
Noam: So what are the three options right now? I’m speaking to my wife or anyone in my family. We have 53 to 48 to 19. What are the different scenarios?
The three scenarios that I’ve played out, one is that there is the opposition bloc then ends up having a governing coalition with Arab parties. And then basically you go from forty-eight plus nineteen, because there are 120 seats in the Knesset. And you could get to 48 plus 19 is 67 to 53. How likely is that to happen?
Or another option, which is that there would be a national unity government. What that means is that the different parties, such as maybe Yashar, Likud, B’Yachad, Democrats, Israel Beiteinu come together, and maybe remove the religious Zionist parties from that unity government. Or there’s a return to elections or a fourth scenario. Play this out for me? How do the next few weeks look?
Eli Kowaz: I’m gonna play it out. Also, the one thing that I, why I would kind of push back a little bit about why Netanyahu is a big winner is I would say that Netanyahu, his last coalition, his last coalition was 64 seats and ended with 68 seats. Right now he’s either finishing with 53 or 54. That’s the lowest the Netanyahu bloc has been since 2009. So, you know, I think that to say that he’s a huge winner It’s like that is the perception of many people I think who are like disappointed on the on the on the center left and also maybe some of the people the Netanyahu bloc but I think he’s you know, he’s kind of he’s kind of in between.
Noam: He’s not a winner or loser. But so, of the three scenarios that I gave you, it’s like if we’re watching here in America, I gave you opposition bloc creates a governing coalition with Arab parties, or there’s a national unity government, or there’s a return to elections. What’s the process? How does this work in Israel? Who now leads the way?
Is it and by the way, an even tougher question is whose promise is gonna be broken first? There are multiple promises. Promise number one is that I’ll never have a governing coalition with Arab parties. And promise number two is that I’ll never work with a Bibi government and I’ll make sure to never work with them. So like which promise is going to be broken first?
Eli Kowaz: Right. So pretty much all of the Eisenkot bloc parties made, in different ways, the promise, as you said, to not sit in a Netanyahu government. And also the majority of them, minus Yair Golan, said that they would not form a government or sit in the government with the Arab parties or backed by the Arab parties. Gadi Eisenkot was a bit more vague. He said anyone who fills his criteria for different things can be in the government. But yeah, I mean, it’s clear that a promise is going to be broken. And the question is, which promise is it? And if no promises are broken, we’re going to elections, right? Something that I think probably is in the interest mostly of Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox parties.
Noam: So who’s gonna break the promise first?
Eli Kowaz: So I think, first it’s important to understand what’s going to happen, right? So once all the votes are counted, they will be delivered to the president, Isaac Herzog. And then what happens is the president has deliberations with all the parties, all the party heads. And the parties, they usually, they recommend their candidate for prime minister.
And this is interesting because this is really one of the big places where the president in Israel, which is usually like a figurehead, he has a lot of say in what can happen. He can use his judgment. It’s not just based on numbers, even though historically the candidate who receives the most amount of recommendations is the candidate that is tasked with forming or trying to form a coalition. And he has 28 days to do that. He can get a 14-day extension. But that’s how it works.
So next week, once Isaac Herzog gets the results, it’s going to be very interesting to see because there’s a chance that Gadi Eisenkot, even though he underperformed and even though the Netanyahu bloc is bigger than the Eisenkot bloc, Eisenkot could get more recommendations because the Arab parties could recommend Eisenkot. that is a likely scenario I would say and then the question is does he get the mandate and if he gets the mandate what does he do? What does he do with that mandate because?
Noam: Wait, let me let me just let me take a step back and understand it. So if you’re what I just heard you say, I w because I want to make sure that I understand it. It’s possible that the Joint List, together with Israel Beitinu, together with Ra’am, together with Democrats, B’Yachad, and am I missing anyone else? And Yashar, that they each are asked by President Herzog, who normally only has a ceremonial role in the Israeli government, they get asked who should, who’s their nod for Prime Minister to create the coalition? And it’s possible that they might all say Gadi Eisenkot.
Eli Kowaz: Very possible.
Noam: And if they all say Gadi Eisenkot, then what decision does Gadi Eisenkot now have to make?
Eli Kowaz: Gadi Eisenkot will have to make a decision of whether he thinks that he can or he wants to try, you know, because if you remember, we had back to back to back to back elections, from 2019 to 2022, there was something that, like, you know, some of the…
Noam: There were five elections, I believe, between 2019 to 2022.
Eli Kowaz: Right, and in those elections, you know, it happened that, you know, that Netanyahu was given the mandate and then he was unable to, so, you know, like there’s a benefit to even going second. But if Eisenkot, let’s assume that Eisenkot gets the mandate, what will he have to do? He will have to do which, you know, many people will see as impossible. He has to get, right now with how the numbers are, he would have to get Avigdor Lieberman to break his promise of not having the Arab parties, as not only a safety net, but he would need Ra’am to actively be part of a government. And I could see this happen, still a very unlikely scenario, but it would be, I would be like a very short government. The purpose of the government would be to replace the speaker of the Knesset, Amir Ohana. There’s already been a report that Eisenkot the bloc is looking to do that with the support of the Arab parties.
And then there are different options about legislation. There’s a law, Chokh HaNisham, the Indictee law, which is a law that would prevent someone under criminal investigation from being able to form a government. The purpose of that law would be to prevent Benjamin Netanyahu from being able to even form a government. And this is something that could be voted down by the high court, but it could also pass. And if they…
Noam: That sounds like a very political politicized thing.
Eli Kowaz: Yes, yes, yes, but you know, we are in a time where that is common, and in Israeli politics, you really never know. Again, this is an unlikely scenario and this coalition would not be a stable or a natural coalition. But if there is enough commonality and if people want to, you know, the Arab parties for the first time, even the journalists have said they are willing to do what it takes to end the Netanyahu Ben-Gvir rule.
I don’t, it’s very hard for me to see Gadi Eisenkot being able to bridge all these gaps between, you know, we’re not talking about, you know, the center left here. We’re talking about Avigdor Lieberman who is, he’s very right wing. I would say he’s more right wing than Netanyahu. Okay. We’re talking about Naftali Bennett, who was the head of the Yesha council. You know, this is not the Israeli politics of the 90s that we were talking about. This is Israeli politics 2026, where you know, there’s basically no, the only left that is there is Yair Golan and the Democrats. And besides that, we’re talking about variations of centrist and center right.
Noam: So I still don’t have clarity though on what the most likely scenario to emerge from this is.
Eli Kowaz: So, I want to talk about your, I want to talk about your, I want to talk about your second, the unity, because I think that’s the most interesting option. And here the promise that would have to be broken is by, you know, by Gadi Eisenkot, or by Naftali Bennett, or by Avigdor Lieberman about sitting with Netanyahu. Now, I think this is interesting because I think this is where also Trump plays into it.
And I think that there have been reports that Trump wants there to be an Israeli government that is not held together by Ben-Gvir and by Smotrich. And so there’s a question, can he put enough pressure on Netanyahu to do this? Maybe this was part of his endorsement of Netanyahu. Maybe, does Netanyahu see this as his last term potentially? Does he want his legacy to be something different? Then I think he does, right? I don’t think he wants his legacy to be how this ended today. I think he wants his legacy to be something else.
Now, whether he’s able to do that, I don’t know. I don’t know, and he would also need, you know, look at what happened with Benny Gantz after he joined the Netanyahu government. He went in for the country, for Netanyahu, and he was just destroyed politically. So this is my hopeful, wishful thinking that maybe, like maybe we can see something where there is a Netanyahu unity government and it leads Israel toward a shift. Maybe we’re talking about Donald Trump’s last two years in the White House, maybe we’re talking about pushing for Saudi normalization, a government that could push a plan forward to remove Hamas from Gaza and to curb settler violence in the West Bank, those kind of things. I could see that as a really, if I want to say to write the end of the Netanyahu story, that would be a beautiful way for him to at least go out with something that he’ll be remembered for positively by not just a small group of Israelis, but by many Israelis.
Noam: So the person who that would have to switch or change their tune would be, Gadi Eisenkot would have to say, I want to be part of this unity government, which would then give, if you had Yashar with Likud, maybe with B’Yachad with maybe with Yisrael Beiteinu, maybe not, and then you remove Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism and and religious Zionism Zahut from it and right.
Eli Kowaz: Yeah, I think that’s 65. Yeah, 65. And then you could see whether the Democrats could be part of that or not. That’s a coalition that people could join.
Noam: Yeah. Let me ask you, let me ask you this question. I know I’m the American in this conversation, but it sounds to me from I’m this objective viewer, right? This objective listener, this objective interviewer. I’m not really objective, everyone, but like let me play that role for a second. And you keep saying that there are 19, 19 seats that the Arab Party’s won. Could you make an argument for why that’s not racist to say they shouldn’t be in the Israeli government? Because it sounds racist. It comes across as racist as to say, hey, I don’t want a government with the Arab parties. But is there an argument for, well, some of these Arab parties, is there a distinction between Ra’am and the Joint List? Is there something to say that they’re similar or different? Or is one of the Arab parties anti-Zionist? And what does that mean to be anti-Zionist? And is the other Arab party not anti-Zionist? Like what, talk me through that.
Eli Kowaz: Well, there is a distinction, but there also, like you said, there is a problem with it. I mean, we try, we tell people, you know, that Israel is a democracy and all its citizens have equal rights. But then we see that when Israeli Arabs exercise their most foundational democratic right, they’re attacked by the Netanyahu government, there are accusations now of voter fraud, et cetera. So it’s not great for us in that sense.
But yes, there’s a big difference. Mansour Abbas and Ra’am did something really historic when they joined the change government in 2022. He is, you know, he is one of the first Arab politicians that, you know, to really want to integrate Arab politics into Zionist politics and into mainstream Israeli politics. You know, he has accepted Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state. He even joined up with Yoav Segalovitch, a former Yesh Atid MK who was number two on his list.
Yes, there are also you know, they have a controversial past.
Noam: It seems to be more than controversial. They have like their origin story in the Muslim Brotherhood.
Eli Kowaz: Yeah, Muslim Brotherhood, origin story. That is true, but that is also something that Mansour Abbas has distanced himself from. But I would say that they are much more of a partner to… And also, Netanyahu did offer Mansour Abbas to be part of his government in 2021. There were multiple reports of that. And Bezalel Smotrich was actually the one who vetoed that.
So you know, it’s not like Netanyahu says, don’t form, you know, they’re going to go with the Arabs. Netanyahu tried to do it himself too.
Noam: And, but Joint List is not the same thing as Ra’am, right?
Eli Kowaz: Not the same thing. The Joint List, you know, it’s a Joint List. It’s not one party. It’s three parties. It’s Hadash, which is the old, you know, Israeli communist party. It’s Taal, which is Ahmed Tibi’s party, kind of like a one man show. And then it’s Balad and Balad are the most anti Zionist party in Israel. Their leader, Sami Abu Shehadeh had there was actually kicked off like voted out, know by the Supreme Court upheld a decision to remove him as leader of the list They are not a party that openly talks about you know accepting even Israel’s right to exist they call for like they call for you know to states but they also call for the right of return so it’s like and you know at
Noam: Just to explain what that means. And there’s two states, Israel, the two state solution would have Israel and this different state called Palestine, but then to the right of return would then also bring all the grandchildren of refugees from nineteen forty eight back to where they were when there was and and to Israel.
Eli Kowaz: Exactly. would essentially end Israel.
Noam: So I just wanted to hear that because, I’m trying to think from an American, an Australian or British construct to to think of like bringing someone who is in America who is anti American, like actively, and saying “I don’t believe in the existence of America” into the government, that’s a tough pill to swallow.
Eli Kowaz: Yes. It is. Now, I do think that the Joint List overall, parts of the Joint List, would be… The hill they would die on is not the right of return. If there was a two-state agreement between Israelis and Palestinians that did not involve the right of return, they would be completely fine with that. But yes, it’s deeply problematic. Even at their event yesterday, one of the speakers said that this is for, this is for like Gaza, this is for the freedom fighters, like, et cetera.
Noam: Wow.
Eli Kowaz: I’m not, roughly that’s what he said. So don’t, like, quote me word for word, but you know, this is part of it. And for a lot of Israeli Jews, know, they don’t necessarily have, you know, they don’t have a problem with Arab Israelis, but they, the perception is that the Arab politicians, don’t care, you know, they don’t really care for the Arab Israelis or the Palestinian citizens of Israel. They care more about the Palestinians in Gaza and in the West Bank and et cetera. So that’s why Mansour Abbas was kind of a, he was kind of refreshing for many Israelis because he really put Palestinian citizens of Israel, Israeli Arabs, first.
Noam: So another scenario would be a minority government. What is a minority government? I wrote down a few examples of minority governments. Rabin 1993 to 1995 during those years, Shas left during the Oslo Accords. back during 2000 there was a minority government. Sharon in 2004 for a little bit, there was a minority government when I believe Labour left or he removed them. Bennett and Lapid in 2022, remember Edith Simon? Remember she left and they would then all of a sudden that was a minority government for a little while. What does it mean for there to be a minority government? What’s the upside? What’s the downside? And what’s the potential of a minority government leading?
Eli Kowaz: It’s mostly downsides. You ideally don’t want to be in a position where you need to form a minority government. It means that you form a government by, you know, you don’t reach 61 seats. you can have a you just have more seats than the other side. And so this would happen if let’s say Gadi Eisenkot bloc and Ra’am, for example, let’s say they finish with 55 seats, where they are today. If they were to try to form a government, pass the government, and then let’s say the Joint List would abstain, and then you would have the Netanyahu bloc, 53 seats right now, voting like opposing that government would be able to exist, but it would be a very fragile government.
How like could it govern effectively? Probably not. Would it last? Probably not. It’s not an ideal situation. But you know, one of the options you mentioned was a repeat elections. I think that is an option that Netanyahu would like, but is an option that the Israeli, that the change bloc, Eisenkot bloc does not want. And it’s also one that probably the Arab parties don’t want. So it’s b b because the change bloc in this election.
Noam: Why?
Eli Kowaz: The voter turnout was the highest almost, you know, it’s been in years. Tens of thousands of Israelis flew in from abroad. We, you know, the Arab turnout was historic. It was over 80%. Those numbers, I saw an interview on Israeli TV today of a woman from Los Angeles. They interviewed her saying, there may be elections in a few months. She was like, I’d love to come to vote for Gadi Eisenkot, but I won’t be able to afford it. So, that is, I think, a concern. And the concern would be that Netanyahu would be able to get the 61 seats which with his natural partners, this current coalition, something that a lot of people fear will be disastrous for Israel. So there is an interest of the opposition parties to not have to not have elections. And also on top of that, the fact that we had an election in Israel with such high turnout in itself, this is also something that President Herzog said, everything should be done possible for a government to be formed. And you know, probably what makes the most sense if possible is a unity government. But there are other scenarios here at play, and I think this the scenario of another election is something that the opposition and the Arab parties are wary of.
Noam: If you’re a betting person, who’s the king maker this time?
Eli Kowaz: So, like on paper it is the Arab parties, but because of the fact that they’re kind of not part of the game, then you know, like I don’t even know if you could place a bet on them. Because that’s the thing. They’ve been ruled kind of illegitimate. And we spoke about reasons why. You know, we didn’t really talk about this, but there are two parties that are below the threshold with a significant amount of votes. We have about almost over 400,000 votes that are going to waste. that are going to waste.
Noam: Crazy. Explain how that works. They have to cross a 3.25% percent threshold.
Eli Kowaz: Yeah, so the 3.25% threshold exists and this exists because it was actually Lieberman was involved in raising it because he wanted a way to prevent the actually the smaller Arab parties from entering the Knesset.
Noam: Wow. So that’s the reason why it’s 3.25%.
Eli Kowaz: That’s the reason why also like the Joint List, because none of the parties, you know, fall below the threshold. That’s where that started, because these are parties with very different ideological ideas. You know, think of a Joint List with like Meretz and Likud, like it’s like or Meretz and Otzma Yehudit. It’s kind of like it’s kind of like that. But yeah, so we have a electoral threshold of 3.25% and you spoke about Yosef Haddad and Ofer Winter’s party.
Amcha Israel. Ofer Winter, former IDF Brigadier General, controversial guy for some people, very, you know, very pro migration policy in Gaza. So he looked like a Netanyahu ally, Netanyahu went all out against him. which, you know, I still don’t know why, because if he passes the threshold, Netanyahu is much closer to being able to form a government. But Netanyahu destroyed his chances. He said that this is Naftali Bennett number two. He’s going to form a government with the left, etc. and so he fell significantly short. He’s at about 1.6, 1.7%.
But then we have Yoaz Hendel, who is more interesting. He was in previous governments, he’s head of the Miluimnikim Party, the reservist party, and he joined up with with Zelekha, who’s the head of this economist party, and he has some support. And then they brought in, you know, someone who your audience is probably very familiar with, Einat Wilf as well. So it’s kind of these three people who like floating around looking for a home.
And they found, and you know, interestingly, there was a lot of appeal because Benny Gantz, who was kind of in between the blocs, Benny Gantz withdrew. And then you had, you know, these people who don’t feel comfortable with one bloc or the other, would vote for him. And it looks like he has about 2.7, 2.8% of the vote. So not that far off, but still. He’ll need a miracle with the soldier like votes to get past the threshold. I don’t think it will happen.
But he could have been the kingmaker. He could have been the kingmaker, but he won’t be.
And so, you know, I would say that it’s the Arab parties because I don’t think it’s gonna be one party that breaks ranks and breaks a promise. I think it will be multiple parties together that go for unity, or that go for a government with the Arab parties. So I’m gonna say that the Arab parties are in a way a kingmaker, but I don’t think there is a clear kingmaker in this election.
Noam: Ten years from now, when someone makes an episode of this show about the 2026 election, what do you think it will be remembered for? And what does this election tell us about Israeli society three years after October 7th?
Eli Kowaz: That’s a great question. And I would say ten years from now, it depends on which scenario, right? If it’s a scenario where I mean for me, look at less let’s say best case scenario. There’s a unity government without the extremists.
Noam: So this is, just for the record, Unpacking Israel History community, this is Eli giving his opinion, not his analysis. His feelings. Let’s hear it, Eli. Feelings are allowed, but I like to frame it as such, yes.
Eli Kowaz: Feelings, my feelings, my feelings. I’m giving my feelings. Let’s just say if there is a a government without the extremists and a government that takes advantage of the opportunities Israel has today, the regional opportunities, et cetera, and moves toward normalization with Saudi Arabia, also changes trajectory, with curbing settler violence in the West Bank, a solution in Gaza that tries to empower moderates etc. If a unity government can move in that direction, I think this is something that we could say out of an election where we saw no winners, it ended up turning out very, very good for Israel.
You know, for these we talk about the prospects of normalization with Saudi Arabia. And I know this is not what the episode is about, but I think it’s understood that in order to get that, there would have to be some movement on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Now, what I think
Noam: Wasn’t true for the Abraham Accords, but I hear you.
Eli Kowaz: It wasn’t true from the Abraham Accords, but it is inherently different with Saudi Arabia and Saudi politics are very different than the UAE and etc. But you know, like it’s and from like it’s a world that I’m in, it’s a non-starter if there’s no move no movement on that issue.
So to that end, I want to say that Netanyahu himself has a unique ability of, because he has supporters that support Netanyahu because he’s Netanyahu. They don’t support him because he’s against this policy, or because he’s for this policy, or because he wants to do this in Gaza, or he wants to do that in Gaza. They support him because he is Netanyahu. And that is a significant chunk. And you know, you spoke about Oslo, right? You spoke about Oslo in in the 90s when Rabin actually needed to use the Arab, use the Arabs not voting to pass Oslo at court.
It is all virtually impossible today to think of Israeli society, Jewish Israeli society, voting for anything that sounds like an agreement with the Palestinians. But Netanyahu himself, because he carries this bloc of supporters, I think he is in a unique position that if he wants to, he can almost break the right-wing bloc and kind of, so that’s just like that’s taking it to like a very, very wishful thinking.
Wishful thinking from my perspective, wishful thinking. Now we could remember this also as just like the beginning of this deadlock. And we could also, another, like from my perspective, deadlock new elections and from my perspective, my perspective, a terrible outcome, which would be this same Ben Gvir-Smotrich government elected again, putting Israel in a very problematic place internationally. You know, Netanyahu spoke about, he’s thinking already about the crypto economy because of the international banking sanctions. Not a place I want to see Israel in ten years from now. So I’m gonna go with the optimistic version of what I said.
Noam: I’m gonna end with this what if. This what if, which is one of my favorite things to do, like a what if segment. What if Benjamin Netanyahu left Likud and was pardoned and Likud had a different leader in place. Let’s say Yossi Cohen.
Eli Kowaz: Interesting. Yossi Cohen out of left field!
Noam: I don’t know. Or someone else. I don’t know. Pick a leader, okay?
Eli Kowaz: I mean that’s the thing. Pick a leader. Netanyahu has made it virtually like there’s no one. It’s part of Netanyahu’s skill. Yeah. Okay.
Noam: Right. But there’s so much of Israeli society that’s actually unified. There’s so much like if you f if an alien came down from outer space and then saw and looked down and said, What’s the difference between Yashar, Likur, Biyachad, Isabel even, to an extent Demokratim, I know it’s more to the left, but they’re all broadly speaking quite similar. And maybe there’s an element of unity that really does exist within Israeli society that is there. It’s an ultimate what if. And what would happen to the Israeli government? I think that they would say, you know what, let’s figure this out together and we’re gonna all break our promises a little bit here and we’re gonna have a unity government of, I don’t know, 70 seats of what I just said, something like that.
Eli Kowaz: Yeah, you’re right. There is a majority of Zionist Israeli Jews that believe in a lot of the same things and the same principles, but we’re in this situation where, yes, Netanyahu’s personal. Like there we have like Netanyahu is kind of right, he’s almost holding, you know, it’s on both sides, right? On the central left, they don’t want to sit with Netanyahu regardless. whereas because of the but there there’s reasons because of the legal stuff, etcetera. But yes, you’re right. There is a lot in common. And it’s also it’s a question of like what happens to the Israeli right after Netanyahu because there’s no one in the Likud that I can think of that is, you know, close to carrying, you know, like you listen to Gidon Sa’ar or like Israel Katz. These are not people that excite you. These are not people that know how to campaign like Netanyahu.
Noam: So he doesn’t have a strong number two or number three is what you’re saying.
Eli Kowaz: No, no, like I would look at people like, you know, this may sound crazy, but like Ben Gvir, I think, in a post-Netanyahu world is in a different, you know, he’s in double digits.
Noam: Wow, that’s so interesting.
Eli Kowaz: And that goes back to what you asked about Israeli society three years after October 7th, right. And I think it’s clear that a lot of Israelis wanted change and they want change and they want new leadership, but there’s a lot of Israelis that are also scared and they’re deeply traumatized. They’re deeply traumatized still by October 7th, and they’re deeply traumatized about what has happened since. They’ve lived through wars, etc. And you know they’ve lived, they haven’t lived the world outside of Israel, seeing scenes of Israel’s wars in Gaza. They’ve seen what’s happened to the hostages. They’ve seen how they’ve come back, the ones that have come back alive, the ones that have come back in coffins. They’ve been under missile fire. They’ve lived through a really, really traumatic time.
And it’s a society that is very, it’s become increasingly right wing and increasingly scared. You know, I think it’s mostly driven by the need for, you know, wanting to be secure and wanting to be safe. And that is something that this government, I mean, whether you want to blame them for it or not, hasn’t given Israelis safety and even I think played into the fears, you know, in this campaign.
So I I just hope that safety is something that the people of Israel can for the next government, that it’s something that the people of Israel will regain that sense of safety so we can start to think, you know, collectively, not out just out of place of fear, but out of a place of hope. I think that would be something that would be great for Israel and for the Jewish people.
Noam: Eli Kowaz, thank you so much for joining me on Unpacking Israeli History. Everyone should check out Eli’s Substack, The Middle Ground. Eli is someone who’s both passionately Zionist and passionately centrist. So you gotta check out his content there. And we just want to thank you so much for joining me on Unpacking Israeli History.
Eli Kowaz: Thank you, Noam. It was a pleasure, todah rabah.