After weeks of threats and speculation, Israel and the United States launched a series of strikes on military and government targets across Iran on Saturday morning, saying the goal was to open the door for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic that rules the country.
Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Israel, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, killing one Israeli, four Syrians, and one person in the UAE, and injuring dozens more. Extensive damage was reported in the Gulf states, with bases, hotels, airports, and other sites in Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait hit by the attacks.
The first waves of Israeli and American strikes on Iran targeted Iranian military and government leaders at several gatherings in the Tehran area, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed Khamenei had been killed in a strike on Saturday, calling him “one of the most evil people in history.” Later in the night, Iranian state media confirmed that Khamenei and his daughter, son-in-law, daughter-in-law, and grandchild were killed in the American and Israeli strikes as well.
“This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country,” Trump stressed in his announcement about the Supreme Leader. He called on IRGC and security forces to lay down their arms in exchange for immunity, warning that “heavy and pinpoint bombing” would continue “throughout the week or, as long as necessary” to achieve what he described as peace in the Middle East. Trump urged Iranian security and military forces to “peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots” and work together to rebuild the country.
After the reports of Khamenei’s death emerged on Saturday night, celebratory protests erupted in several locations across Iran. One video showed protesters tearing down a monument to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic in Iran.
However, shortly after the protests began, opposition-affiliated organizations reported that government forces started attacking protesters, firing towards the crowds and arresting several participants.
The IDF confirmed on Saturday night that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Mohammad Pakpour, senior Iranian intelligence official Salah Asadi, Iranian Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh, Hossein Jabal Amelian – the head of Iran’s Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND); former SPND head Reza Mozaffarinia, National Security Council head Ali Shamkhani, and Mohammad Shirazi – the head of military coordination for the commander-in-chief were killed in the strikes during the day.
Throughout the day on Saturday, Iran launched several volleys of missiles and drones towards Israel. On Saturday evening, a woman in her 40s was killed, and 21 other people were injured, including one man in serious condition, after an Iranian missile fell in the Tel Aviv area.
Decades of indirect enmity
Israel and Iran have been at odds for decades, but up until 2024, the conflict was indirect. Israel mainly clashed with Iran-backed proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, while Iran used these proxies to attack Jews and Israelis around the world. Israel also conducted some covert operations in Iran, including several sabotage operations on Iranian nuclear facilities and assassinations of nuclear scientists.
For more on the rocky relationship between Israel and Iran, check out this Unpacked video.
October 7: The attack that changed everything
That all changed after Hamas launched its attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. Israel faced off with Iran’s proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, decimating these groups, which had served as a buffer between Israel and Iran for years.
This multifront war opened the door to more direct confrontations between the two countries. In April 2024, as Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies continued waves of rocket and drone attacks on Israel, the IDF struck an IRGC commander at the Iranian consulate in Damascus who was in charge of coordinating the operations of Iran-backed proxies in Lebanon and Syria. A little over a week later, Iran launched a barrage of several hundred missiles and drones at Israel, marking the first-ever direct confrontation between the two countries.
The two clashed again in October of that year, after Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. About 180 ballistic missiles were launched by Iran then, with Israel responding with strikes on Iranian air defenses and missile production facilities.
The 12-Day War
Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program had also been building for years. In 2018, Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, the nuclear deal Iran signed with the U.S. and European leaders in 2015, insisting a better deal could be reached and arguing that the agreement had enriched Iran and funded terrorism.
From that point on, Iran significantly advanced its nuclear program, enriching large amounts of uranium to about 60%, not far from the 90% typically used in nuclear weapons. (Check out this Unpacked article for an explanation of what all this means and why it’s important for nuclear weapons development.)
By May 2025, Iran was estimated to have enough highly enriched uranium to prepare 11 weapons within a month, with any additional steps needed to build a deliverable nuclear missile estimated to take six months to a year.
Talks aimed at reaching a new deal hit a dead end, and early in the morning on June 13, 2025, the IDF launched strikes on nuclear facilities, senior military officials, nuclear scientists, and missile sites across Iran. Israel said Iran had taken unprecedented steps toward weaponizing enriched uranium, bringing it just weeks from building a bomb.
After nearly two weeks of fighting, the U.S. launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with bunker-busting bombs dropped by advanced B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles.
In the 12 days of fighting, 31 Israelis had been killed, and thousands were wounded. In Iran, over 1,000 people were reported killed, and thousands were wounded.
While Israel and the U.S. at first insisted that Iran’s nuclear and missile program had been effectively destroyed, those assessments were toned down somewhat as more information was revealed over the following months. While the damage to Iran’s nuclear program was significant, it still had the capability to rebuild the program within a year or two.
In the months after the war, Iran began steadily working to rebuild its nuclear and missile programs. This included efforts to reinforce surviving facilities to protect itself from future attacks. Iran additionally has a stockpile of about 400kg of highly enriched uranium that could be rapidly enriched to weapons-grade, and it’s unclear exactly where this stockpile is being held or if it’s still buried in one of the facilities targeted last year.
The U.S. renewed attempts to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran, but talks repeatedly stalled over the past half a year as both sides’ red lines remain incompatible. The U.S. has demanded that Iran give up the ability to enrich uranium in the country, end support for its proxies in the region, and restrict its ballistic missile program. Iran has insisted that its proxies and missile program aren’t up for discussion and that it will not give up the right to enrich uranium domestically.
Protests shake Iran, government crackdown sparks calls for regime change
A major turning point came in late December, after protests erupted in Iran as the country’s currency collapsed and inflation skyrocketed, making the already high cost of living even more crushing.
For years, corruption, mismanagement, and international sanctions had severely destabilized the Iranian economy. Over the past ten years, Iran has faced several major waves of protests, mostly sparked by economic grievances but also by opposition to oppressive government measures. The last major wave came in 2022, after Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian woman, was killed by police who detained and beat her on allegations she was violating modest dress rules. The protests swept the country for several months before subsiding in early 2023.
Since then, Iran has faced new challenges. The economy has been severely destabilized by widespread corruption and crippling international sanctions. Many Iranians can’t afford basic necessities as prices have skyrocketed. Droughts, combined with the economic crisis, have led to frequent water rationing and electricity outages. In addition to the damage from the war last June, the situation in Iran was critical.
The protests in December started in Iran’s markets among merchants heavily impacted by the collapse of the country’s currency, and rapidly spread nationwide. While at first the slogans focused on economic grievances, the protests quickly shifted to anti-government positions, demanding the overthrow of the Iranian regime.
On January 8 and 9, the protests expanded dramatically after Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah, called on protesters to gather on these nights, though it’s difficult to gauge how much support Pahlavi has in Iran.
The Iranian government responded with extreme violence, shutting down the internet, arresting tens of thousands of people, and killing thousands of protesters. Many estimates place the overall death toll of the government crackdown in the tens of thousands, reaching as high as 30-40,000 killed in a matter of two days.
As the protests expanded and the crackdown intensified, Trump warned that America would intervene if many protesters were killed. He later insisted that he had forced the regime in Iran to hold off on executions of protesters, although some executions reportedly occurred regardless. The U.S. started pushing extensive resources to the region, including two aircraft carriers, refueling tankers, and fighter jets, to back up the threats.
In the weeks following, the U.S. restarted nuclear negotiations with Iran, insisting on the same demands it had made in earlier talks. Iran maintained its earlier red lines, refusing to discuss its proxies and ballistic missile program, and insisting on its right to continue to enrich uranium. During the talks, contradictory reports emerged about whether progress was being made.
The last round was held this past Thursday in Geneva. Iranian representatives and Omani mediators expressed optimism, though American sources gave contradictory signals about progress. The two sides had discussed holding another round this week, but Saturday’s strikes postponed that option indefinitely.
In a video published shortly after the strikes began, Trump cited decades of Iranian hostility toward the U.S., including attacks by Iran and its proxies against Americans since 1979. ” It’s been mass terror, and we’re not going to put up with it any longer,” Trump said.
Trump expressed frustration with Iran’s refusal to agree to America’s terms, noting that after the war last year, “we warned them never to resume their malicious pursuit of nuclear weapons, and we sought repeatedly to make a deal. We tried. They wanted to do it. They didn’t want to do it. Again, they wanted to do it. They didn’t want to do it. They didn’t know what was happening. They just wanted to practice evil.”
“They rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and we can’t take it anymore,” the president added. “Instead, they attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing long-range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas, and could soon reach the American homeland.”
Trump stressed that the operation was aimed at ensuring that Iran could not pose a threat to the U.S. and would focus on destroying their missile program, navy, and nuclear program. The president also addressed Iranian security forces, advising them to lay down their arms in return for full immunity, “or in the alternative, face certain death.”
Addressing Iranian protesters, Trump advised them not to leave their homes due to the airstrikes. “When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” Trump said. “For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now, you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let’s see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
Senior Trump administration officials told reporters that the strikes were launched because the US “had analysis that basically told us, if we sat back and waited to get hit first, the amount of casualties and damage would be substantially higher than if we acted in a preemptive defensive way to prevent those launches from occurring, and that is the focus of the campaign right now,” according to CNBC.
The officials added that Iran had refused an offer for a free supply of nuclear fuel forever in exchange for ending their enrichment of uranium. “The fact that they weren’t willing to take free nuclear fuel was a big tell to us that they were looking to buy time while they’re weak and to get to a place where they, over time, can enrich,” one of the officials said. “There are several other areas in the negotiations that also showed that they were not curious about doing a deal.”
Additionally, on Saturday, the IDF said it developed the plans for the strikes over months, and launched the operation as soon as an operational opportunity was identified: the gatherings of Iranian leaders in Tehran. Once the gatherings were spotted, the operation was launched.
What happens next?
Israeli and American officials told reporters on Saturday that the strikes on Iran are expected to continue for at least a few more days. There are, however, some critical questions that remain unanswered as of Saturday night, perhaps the most pressing being how regime change will occur and who will take over if the current Iranian government falls.
When pressed on the issue on Saturday night, Trump told CBS that “there are some good candidates” to lead the country after the government falls.
American and Israeli statements up until now have indicated that Iranian civilians will need to be the ones to overthrow their government if they want change, with America and Israel planning to continue strikes from the air to remove leaders and make change possible.
How exactly Iranian protesters will achieve any change, even with continuing strikes, wasn’t immediately clear. The protesters are almost entirely unarmed, and there is still no indication that there have been any significant defections from the Iranian armed forces. The reports of new government crackdowns on protesters on Saturday night only heighten the concerns surrounding the feasibility of change without more direct aid to the protesters.
In recent statements, Pahlavi, the son of the former king of Iran, has said that he’s interested in serving as an interim leader of the country after the current regime falls. He has argued that much of the existing government and military could be maintained, at least in the interim phase, and that a constitutional conference could be convened to draft a new constitution. He’s also insisted that he isn’t opposed to a system in which the monarchy is not restored.
It’s difficult to determine from the footage and available information exactly how popular Pahlavi is in Iran. His family has an unpopular history in Iran, which is why many Iranians supported the revolution in 1979. It’s likely that at least many older Iranians would fear the return of his family to power, even if he says it’s only temporary.
The existence of influence campaigns, potential AI content, and fake audio placed on some videos makes gauging support even more challenging. However, from the videos that have been verified as authentic, the presence of pro-Pahlavi chants is still notable in comparison to past protests. Whether that’s a sign that he’d be accepted as a new leader or simply a cry for help from any option besides the current regime or a call meant merely to evoke nostalgia from some rosy image of Iran of the past, still isn’t clear.
