The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement on Sunday night to end nearly four months of war, a Memorandum of Understanding that will extend the ceasefire for 60 days and launch negotiations on a series of outstanding issues, such as Iran’s nuclear program. However, the details of the deal remain unclear and have been contested by both sides, and the many issues left open by the agreement have raised serious concerns that the new deal may not last long.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government mediated between the two sides, was the first to announce that a “peace deal” had been reached, stressing that both Iran and the U.S. had “declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed it had finalized a memorandum of understanding a few hours later, and President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that the deal was “complete.” Both sides have since signed the memorandum electronically, with a formal ceremony set for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland.
What’s included in the deal?
The memorandum is more than a ceasefire but less than a full peace treaty. The text still hadn’t been released to the public as of Tuesday night, so the only information available came from media reports and statements by American and Iranian officials.
What the statements from both sides agree on is that the MoU stipulated the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a commitment from Iran not to pursue a nuclear weapon, the lifting of the U.S. blockade on Iran, and the launch of talks on Iran’s nuclear program and other issues. That’s where the agreed-upon details end.
Already, Iran and the U.S. have contradicted one another about the other reported terms of the deal. For example, Iranian officials have said that the U.S. has committed to release around $25 billion in frozen assets for Iran during the 60-day period, including around $12 billion before talks even begin, and to lift oil sanctions on Iran. U.S. Vice President JD Vance denied that this was the case, telling CNBC on Monday that this would only occur if Iran took certain steps concerning their nuclear program with international monitoring. Vance did not detail which steps Iran would be required to take.
Iran and the U.S. have also provided conflicting details about whether Iran will continue to toll ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. American officials have said that transit through the Strait will be “toll-free.” However, Iranian officials have said they intend to charge “service fees” and maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, in a plan coordinated with Oman.
There have also been debates concerning Lebanon’s place in the agreement. Iran, Pakistan, and the U.S. have all said that the deal includes a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. However, what exactly that means has been heavily debated. American officials have said Israel won’t be required under the deal to withdraw from southern Lebanon, and that the IDF will still be able to respond to threats posed by Hezbollah. Iran hasn’t clarified exactly what conditions it will insist on concerning Lebanon. On Tuesday, Hezbollah told Reuters that it had been informed by Iran that a demand for an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon would be included in the talks with the U.S., but would not be a prerequisite for the talks to take place.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, told diplomats in Tehran that its two sides were the United States and Israel on one hand and Iran and Hezbollah on the other, and that any Israeli strike on Lebanon or continued occupation of Lebanese territory would be a violation of the memorandum. In Washington, the deal drew bipartisan skepticism in Congress.
Meanwhile, Israeli leaders have insisted that the IDF will not withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is no longer a threat. “We will remain in the security zones for as long as it takes to defend our country,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday. “Iran wanted us to withdraw from there. That did not happen…we want to preserve, and are working to preserve, our freedom of action.”
Israel and the Lebanese government, which Hezbollah is a part of, reached an agreement on June 3 meant to lead to the disarmament of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces in a gradual, monitored plan. However, Hezbollah and Iran rejected the agreement, with Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, describing the deal as “futile, humiliating, and shameful for Lebanon.”
Old stumbling blocks remain in place
Beyond Lebanon, it remains unclear exactly what will be included in the talks during the 60-day period set by the MoU, and how these talks will yield results different from past attempts to reach a comprehensive deal.
The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in successive rounds of negotiations aimed at reaching a new nuclear deal since 2021, including in the weeks leading up to the outbreak of the war this past February. All these attempts failed, largely running aground the same handful of issues, as red lines on both sides remained entirely incompatible.
In the talks leading up to the war and during the ceasefire, the U.S. has demanded that Iran give up the right to enrich uranium domestically, destroy a stockpile of over 400 kg of uranium enriched to nearly the level needed for a nuclear weapon, limit its ballistic missile program, and end its support for proxy groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
Wondering why enrichment is such a big deal? Check out our explainer here.
The most recent talks aimed for a temporary memorandum of understanding to set the agenda for future negotiations and stabilize the ceasefire. Even that proved difficult, because Iran demanded the lifting of sanctions as a precondition for any memorandum, while the U.S. wanted at least some movement on nuclear issues. Iranian officials insisted they would not discuss anything nuclear until a memorandum was in place.
The two sides also clashed over how to handle the Strait of Hormuz after the war and whether Lebanon would be fully included in the deal. Other demands, including Iranian demands for reparations and a withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region and American demands concerning Iran’s missile program, were raised at the beginning of the ceasefire but were gradually dropped as talks dragged on.
Mixed messaging from Tehran made matters worse. For example, some officials signaled Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz without restrictions, while others insisted it would keep some form of control at various points throughout the ceasefire. Part of the problem was that after the strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and many senior officials, rival factions began fighting over who would run the country.
Analysts have described the split as one between two broad coalitions. On one side are the hardliners, mainly IRGC officials and radical clerics, who oppose any concessions and favor a return to war with the U.S. despite the cost. On the other are pragmatists, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, who prefer an agreement even if it means conceding some points. The line between the two is not clean; some officials are on the fence, and in practical terms, the hardliners have appeared to hold the upper hand.
With the leadership divided and the status of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader still unclear, negotiations repeatedly faltered for lack of a unified Iranian position. Concessions that appeared on the table were often pulled once hardline officials reviewed the proposals. Reporting on the talks swung between optimism and pessimism, with Trump repeatedly claiming a deal was days away even as he vented frustration at Iranian negotiators.
The week that led to the deal
In the week before the agreement was signed, Iran and the U.S. were repeatedly brought to the brink of renewing the war.
The fighting between the IDF and Hezbollah escalated, culminating on Sunday, June 7, with rocket fire toward northern Israel and an Israeli strike on the Dahiyeh suburbs of Beirut in response.
Iran acted on threats it had made previously to strike Israel in response to any strikes on the Beirut area that night, launching several barrages of missiles at northern Israel. The Iran-backed Houthis joined the fighting for the first time since April as well, firing a missile and a drone the following day.
Trump told reporters he would order Netanyahu not to retaliate, insisting the U.S. and Iran were close to a deal that an escalation would wreck. “The Iranian strikes didn’t hurt anybody,” he told Axios. “Hopefully Israel is not going to retaliate.” He also claimed Israel had not coordinated its Beirut strikes with the U.S., which Israeli officials denied.
Despite Trump’s comments, Israel struck Iranian air defenses and a petroleum complex used to produce ballistic-missile materials in southwestern Iran the morning after Iran’s attack, and Iran fired more missiles in return. That afternoon, Trump posted that both sides wanted an immediate ceasefire and that “final negotiations on ‘Peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way,” while stressing that the U.S. blockade would stay until a final agreement was reached.
Shortly afterward, the IRGC said it considered the round of fighting over, but only if Israel halted all operations in southern Lebanon, an escalation of its earlier threat, which had covered only the Beirut area.
Israel also called the round over but rejected the new terms. “In the last 24 hours, Iran and Hezbollah tried to impose a new equation upon us,” Netanyahu said at the time. “They thought they would fire at Israel from Lebanese territory and from Iran, and we would not act. That did not happen, and it will not happen. Not on my watch!” He warned that any further Iranian attacks would meet “overwhelming force.”
The U.S. was pulled into a direct clash the next day. A day after an American Apache helicopter was downed on the night of Monday, June 8, by an Iranian drone off the coast of Oman, the U.S. struck Iranian air defenses and radar systems near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said the strikes also hit two water reservoirs near Sirik in southern Iran and retaliated with missiles and drones aimed at Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.
By that Wednesday, Trump appeared to have run out of patience. “Iran is all talk and no action,” he wrote. “The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!!” He told reporters he had decided to resume strikes because Iran was dragging its feet, and U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said America would carry out “strong and clear” strikes to force Iran to accept its demands, with further strikes the following night if Iran did not sign.
The shift followed a failed effort by Qatari negotiators, who had traveled to Tehran to bridge the gaps. On that Wednesday night, the U.S. struck Iranian surveillance, communications, and air-defense sites, mostly near the coast, and Iran again fired on Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.
By that Thursday, Iran’s military declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all traffic and warned it would target any vessel attempting to cross, although U.S. Central Command insisted the waterway remained open and that commercial ships were still passing under U.S. protection.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the new strikes had made the U.S.-Iran ceasefire “practically meaningless.” Trump announced more strikes were planned for that Thursday night and said the U.S. would take control of Iranian oil infrastructure at Kharg Island “in the not too distant future.”
However, just a few hours later, he canceled the strikes, saying a deal had been brought to the highest levels of Iranian leadership and approved. That evening, after a call with Trump, Netanyahu’s office said the president had assured him a final agreement would include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and an end to Iran’s support for its regional proxies. Iranian officials disputed that any deal had been reached, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson saying that most of the text had been finalized but that “the Americans kept changing their positions.”
Sunday’s breakthrough
The on-again, off-again pattern broke over the weekend. On Friday, June 12, Iranian state media reported a draft memorandum outlining a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of U.S. oil sanctions, even as Trump and Iranian officials clashed over the release of frozen assets.
Then, on Sunday, June 14, the deal nearly collapsed before it was sealed. Hezbollah fired into northern Israel, and Israel struck a Hezbollah headquarters in the Dahiyeh suburbs, prompting Iran to warn it would launch a “strong response.” By some accounts, that very strike accelerated the American push to secure Iran’s signature on the MoU, with some reports claiming Trump offered additional concessions to get Iran to agree.
Late Sunday, the breakthrough came, and the deal was announced. By Monday, the memorandum had been signed electronically by both sides, with a formal ceremony set for Friday in Switzerland and a second phase of nuclear talks to follow.
After the signing, Trump expressed frustration with Netanyahu and the decision to strike Beirut on Sunday. In a New York Times interview, Trump called Netanyahu “a very difficult man” who should be grateful, a sharp break from the united front the two had shown at the war’s start.
At the G7 summit in France on June 16, Trump went further, faulting Israel’s handling of Lebanon and suggesting that Syria’s new government might do a better job against Hezbollah. He also softened on Tehran, describing Iran’s post-war leadership as rational and insisting the U.S. would put no money into Iran.
Can this ceasefire hold?
As the two sides prepare for the formal signing ceremony on Friday, the future of the ceasefire remains increasingly uncertain.
The memorandum is meant to stabilize the ceasefire, but it is temporary, with a roughly 60-day window for negotiating the toughest questions that have prevented a deal up until now, Iran’s nuclear and missile programs chief among them. Whether either side will move off the red lines that prevented a deal before the war remains to be seen.
The most immediate danger is Lebanon. Iran says any Israeli strike there voids the deal, while Israel says it isn’t bound and won’t withdraw. That contradiction is already being tested daily. Sunday’s near-collapse, when one Hezbollah barrage and an Israeli reprisal nearly sank the agreement hours before it was announced, is a preview of how thin the margins are.
Most analysts are skeptical about the chances of a comprehensive deal being reached during the 60-day period.
Daniel Byman, director of the Warfare and Irregular Threats Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argued that the U.S. is in a weaker position now than it was before the war.
While the war did inflict serious military and economic damage on the regime in Iran, Byman emphasized that the regime has more leverage than the U.S., mainly due to its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding the relationship between the U.S. and Israel after the deal, Byman noted that “Israelis bet in the Trump casino, hoping to win it all, but they may have lost everything.”
“The coming months will reveal whether the United States can transform a costly and contentious military campaign into a diplomatic success,” Byman added. “Washington will need to restore allied confidence, bolster deterrence, and impose meaningful constraints on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Otherwise, Tehran will be more confident that in future crises, it can divide the United States from its allies, manage the devastation of the war, and impose costs on the United States and its allies.”
Eldad Shavit and Sima Shine, researchers at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, warned that the MoU will likely be used by both Iran and the U.S. to conduct long, drawn-out discussions without actually resolving anything.
“Iran will try to preserve the concessions it has already received, avoid making additional concessions, and water down the American demands. Trump, who has already declared success, will find it difficult, and will likely be unwilling, to return to war, as it would risk the political achievement he seeks to present,” Shavit and Shine said.
In terms of Israel’s position in light of the deal, the INSS researchers argued that while the war showed Israel’s military power, the lack of a decisive outcome and the growing gaps between Israel and the U.S. complicate that picture. They added that while Iran has emerged so far with the upper hand, the regime still needs to deal with the massive damage caused by the war, worsening economic issues, increasing power struggles between competing factions within the regime, and hostility from large segments of the Iranian public.
Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis (ret.), a former strategist in the Pentagon, expressed cautious optimism about the MoU, noting that “Trump deserves credit” for reaching a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and eases the economic turmoil caused by the war.
“Yet Americans should view this agreement for precisely what it is: a strategic pause,” Maginnis cautioned. “That is not a criticism. A strategic pause may be exactly what is needed at this moment. But a pause is not a solution.”
Maginnis emphasized that “Success is measured by whether the underlying causes of the conflict are addressed in ways that reduce the likelihood of a future war…The question that will define [Trump’s] legacy is not whether he ended the shooting. It is whether the architecture built in these next 60 days proves stronger than Tehran’s ambitions, Israel’s independent judgment, and the region’s long history of swallowing diplomatic frameworks whole.”
For now, the guns have mostly gone quiet in the Persian Gulf, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz. But the Iranian regime has survived the war and secured a deal that gives it more breathing room, the U.S. and Israel are openly at odds over what the deal even covers, and the hardest questions have only been postponed, not resolved. Whether the quiet holds may not be clear until the 60-day clock runs out, if the ceasefire even gets that far.
